An energy system transition in the European Union is required to meet the decarbonisation targets determined in the Paris Agreement. To realise this transition, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 is required. However, ambitions are being raised towards carbon neutrality. Such transition will likely imply deep changes across all sectors of the EU economies and societies. The impacts on these sectors need to be analysed with a multi-disciplinary approach, to unveil cross-sectoral risks and opportunities of the transition. Additionally, the pace and effectiveness of the transition may be affected by technical and economic drivers within the EU. In this paper, we soft-link three modelling frameworks specialised in assessing technology transitions, spatially-disaggregated health impacts of air pollutants and economic impacts and we apply them to the study of deep decarbonisation pathways for the EU. An energy system model, TIMES PanEU, is soft linked with an impact assessment model, EcoSense, and with a general equilibrium model, NEWAGE. The application looks at three clearly distinguished but likely paths: one where the decarbonisation effort is mostly undertaken by decarbonisation of the energy supply; one where consumers take on a more active role in the decarbonisation, instead; one where ambitions are raised and all sectors of the economy must act together to achieve the targets. In the specific application, it is concluded that 80% reduction is achievable with a decentralised, demand driven system as well as with a centralised one, where the decarbonisation effort mainly comes from the supply side. On the other hand, to achieve a more ambitious reduction target, a broader technology mix and also the effort from both supply and demand side will be required. The synergy between the sectors, especially for the utilisation of the domestic sources such as biomass, will be a decisive factor for the direction of the energy transition.

为了实现《巴黎协定》中确定的脱碳目标，需要欧盟进行能源系统转型。为了实现这一转变，需要到2050年将温室气体排放量从1990年的水平至少减少80％。但是，人们正在致力于实现碳中和。这种过渡很可能暗示着欧盟经济和社会所有领域的深刻变化。需要采用多学科的方法来分析这些部门对这些部门的影响，以揭示跨部门的风险和转型的机会。此外，过渡的速度和有效性可能会受到欧盟内部技术和经济驱动因素的影响。在本文中，我们软链接了三个专门用于评估技术过渡的建模框架，空气污染物在空间上对健康的影响以及经济影响，我们将其应用于欧盟深层脱碳途径的研究。能源系统模型TIMES PanEU与影响评估模型EcoSense和一般均衡模型NEWAGE之间建立了软链接。该应用程序着眼于三个明显不同但可能的途径：一种途径，其中脱碳工作主要是通过能源供应的脱碳来完成的；消费者在脱碳中扮演更积极的角色；在这一地区，雄心勃勃，所有经济部门必须共同行动以实现目标。在特定的应用中，得出的结论是，分散的，按需求驱动的系统以及集中式系统可以实现80％的降低，脱碳工作主要来自供应方。另一方面，为了实现更宏伟的减排目标，将需要更广泛的技术组合以及供需双方的努力。部门之间的协同作用，特别是对于利用生物质等家庭资源的协同作用，将成为能源转型方向的决定性因素。