Climate change will bring more extremes in temperature and precipitation that will impact productivity and ecosystem resilience throughout agroecosystems worldwide. Historical events can be used to identify drivers that impact future events. A catastrophic drought in the US in the 1930s resulted in an abrupt boundary between areas severely impacted by the Dust Bowl and areas that were less severely affected. Historical primary production data confirmed the location of this boundary at the border between two states (Nebraska and Iowa). Local drivers of weather and soils explained production responses across the boundary before and after the drought (1926–1948). During the drought, however, features at the landscape scale (soil properties and wind velocities) and regional scale (the Missouri River, its floodplain, and the nearby Loess Hills) explained most of the observed variance in primary production. The impact of future extreme events may be affected by land surface properties that either accentuate or ameliorate the effects of these events. Consideration of large‐scale geomorphic processes may be necessary to interpret and manage for catastrophic events.

中文翻译：

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破译过去，为​​未来做准备：为下一个（“非常重要的”）极端事件做准备

气候变化将在温度和降水方面带来更多极端情况，这将影响全球范围内整个农业生态系统的生产力和生态系统复原力。历史事件可用于识别影响未来事件的驱动因素。1930年代美国发生的灾难性干旱导致在受沙尘暴影响严重的地区和受灾较轻的地区之间出现了突然的界线。历史原始生产数据证实了该边界在两个州（内布拉斯加州和爱荷华州）之间的边界位置。天气和土壤的当地驱动因素解释了干旱前后（1926-1948年）跨边界的生产响应。但是，在干旱期间，景观尺度（土壤性质和风速）和区域尺度（密苏里河，其洪泛区，和附近的Loess Hills）解释了初级生产中观察到的大部分变化。未来极端事件的影响可能会受到土地表面特性的影响，这些特性会加剧或改善这些事件的影响。为了解释和管理灾难性事件，可能需要考虑大规模地貌过程。