This article traces how the notion of finite limits to emissions based on 2 °C carbon budgets was applied to increase the credibility of a carbon-constrained future in two very separate realms, social movements contesting fossil-fuel development and the financial sector—a process yet to be described in the relevant political and financial literatures. For each realm and sub-areas within them, we apply a three-wave taxonomy to trace the application of 2 °C carbon budget based concepts—including stranded assets, the carbon bubble, divestment, and anti-pipeline campaigns—from the fringe to the mainstream in under 10 years. We do so by drawing on relevant primary documents and peer-reviewed literature, complemented by a quantitative textual analysis of relevant discourse from news sources. The article establishes how, in efforts to shift expectations, climate proponents used 2 °C carbon budgets to frame a stark choice between a safe climate with strict carbon constraints and growth-oriented fossil-fuel interests. The article also demonstrates that these concepts, and efforts inspired by them, contributed to constraints on fossil-fuel developments and interests, arguably further enhancing the credibility of a carbon-constrained future. We conclude with a discussion of the potentially self-reinforcing nature of such expectation dynamics and by highlighting overlapping implications for actors across finance, where investors reorient risk assessment around climate, and social movements, where activists disrupt states’ entrenched commitment to fossil-fuel expansion.

中文翻译：

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基于 2°C 碳预算限制化石燃料：政治和金融领域快速采用变革性概念

本文追溯了基于 2 °C 碳预算的有限排放限制概念如何在两个非常不同的领域，即竞争化石燃料开发的社会运动和金融部门——一个过程中应用来提高碳约束未来的可信度。尚未在相关的政治和金融文献中描述。对于其中的每个领域和子领域，我们应用三波分类法来追踪基于 2°C 碳预算的概念的应用——包括搁浅资产、碳泡沫、撤资和反管道运动——从边缘到10 年以内的主流。我们通过借鉴相关的原始文件和同行评审的文献，辅以对来自新闻来源的相关话语的定量文本分析来做到这一点。这篇文章确定了如何在努力改变期望的过程中，气候支持者使用 2 °C 的碳预算在严格碳约束的安全气候和以增长为导向的化石燃料利益之间做出了明确的选择。文章还表明，这些概念以及受它们启发的努力导致了对化石燃料发展和利益的限制，可以说进一步提高了碳受限未来的可信度。我们最后讨论了这种预期动态的潜在自我强化性质，并强调了对金融行为者的重叠影响，投资者围绕气候和社会运动重新调整风险评估，活动家破坏国家对化石燃料扩张的根深蒂固的承诺.