Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Main objective of this study was to map the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future under different climate scenarios in Nepal. Habitat mapping is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces. Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71 km2) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96 and 2300 m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9–10.5% under different RCPs by 2070. Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice.

中文翻译：

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尼泊尔气候变化情景下 Eleusine coracana (L) gaertn（小米）的潜在适宜栖息地。


小米是尼泊尔的第四种主要作物，采用传统的综合生计系统种植。适时的降雨和适宜的温度主要影响作物的分布和产量。尼泊尔的气候变化很明显，有必要了解它如何影响小米的栖息地适宜性。这项研究的主要目的是绘制尼泊尔当前适宜栖息地的地图，并预测未来在不同气候情景下的潜在变化。栖息地测绘对于最大限度地提高产量和最大限度地减少当地品种的损失非常重要。本研究采用 Maxent 模型，基于两个不同时期（2050 年和 2050 年）的代表性浓度路径（RCP）（RCP 2.6、4.5、6.0 和 8.5），量化了小米当前的适宜生境以及未来生境适宜性的变化。 2070AD）使用气候预测变量和物种产地。模型显示，尼泊尔39.7%（58512.71平方公里）的面积非常适合种植小米，种植地大多在海拔96至2300米之间。尼泊尔东部和中部地区比西部地区更适合种植。我们的研究清楚地表明，在不同的RCP下，到2050年，未来小米的气候适宜面积将减少4.3%至8.9%，到2070年，将减少8.9%至10.5%。 小米主要种植在半山梯田。气候变化导致气温大幅升高可能是小米栖息地适宜性下降的原因之一。这种情况未来将进一步威胁当地地方品种小米的消失。研究结果有助于气候适应型智能农业实践的规划和政策制定。