ABSTRACT This paper puts forward a new methodology for time-variant seismic risk analysis of transportation networks. Risk here denotes the probability of exceeding the sum of direct loss due to repair costs of bridges in the network and indirect loss due to the reduced capacity for traffic flow. The proposed methodology employs reliability methods and a host of probabilistic models for earthquake events, damage, repair cost, downtime, and travel time, while accounting for time-varying phenomena of aging and discounting. A comprehensive application on the transportation network of Isfahan, Iran, is presented that features 64 bridges subject to seismicity from seven sources.

中文翻译：

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考虑经济和社会经济影响的交通网络时变地震风险分析

摘要 本文提出了一种新的交通网络时变地震风险分析方法。这里的风险是指超过网络中桥梁维修成本造成的直接损失和交通流量减少造成的间接损失之和的概率。所提出的方法采用可靠性方法和一系列关于地震事件、损坏、维修成本、停机时间和旅行时间的概率模型，同时考虑了老化和折扣的时变现象。展示了对伊朗伊斯法罕交通网络的综合应用，其中包含来自七个来源的 64 座受地震活动影响的桥梁。