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Variations in sub-daily precipitation at centennial scale
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 8.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-03 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0117-1
Kristian Förster , Luisa-Bianca Thiele

Due to data availability long-term variations in precipitation rates are mostly studied based on daily precipitation recordings. Recent research suggests, however, that variations in sub-daily precipitation are subject to higher dynamics compared to daily precipitation and a more rapid intensification is likely. Here we show that both observational data with at least 58 years of sub-daily precipitation records and a dynamical downscaling approach with low spatial resolution based on atmospheric re-analysis data confirm these expectations with consistent results. High percentiles of precipitation are subject to multi-decadal oscillations and increased during the last 150 years. We found an increase of 4% K−1 (daily), 12% K−1 (hourly), and 13% K−1 (10 min), which is consistent with Clausius–Clapeyron- (CC) and super CC-scaling, respectively. These findings highlight that dynamical downscaling can help to reliably shed light on sub-daily precipitation variations if small timescales are considered in the experiments.



中文翻译:

百年尺度下次日降水量的变化

由于数据的可用性,大部分降水率的长期变化是根据每日的降水记录来研究的。但是,最近的研究表明,与日降水量相比,次日降水量的变化具有更高的动态性,并且集约化速度可能更快。在这里,我们表明,具有至少58年的次日降水记录的观测数据,以及基于大气再分析数据的低空间分辨率的动态降尺度方法,都证实了这些期望并具有一致的结果。高降水百分位会经历十年的振荡,并在过去150年中增加。我们发现每天增加4%K -1,每小时增加12%K -1和13%K -1(10分钟),这分别与Clausius–Clapeyron-(CC)和超级CC缩放一致。这些发现表明,如果在实验中考虑较小的时间尺度,则动态降尺度可以帮助可靠地揭示次日降水量的变化。

更新日期:2020-04-03
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