In the context of rapid urbanization and climate change, understanding the impact of urban dynamics on surface runoff is importance. For future urban planning, there is a particular knowledge gap regarding the factors that affect surface runoff to improve urban resilience to local flooding. This study explored the impacts of different urban dynamics on surface water runoff considering the surface cover characteristics of different residential types (i.e., low- and high-density settlements) in the city of Munich, Germany. The surface cover characteristics were quantified using the ‘i-Tree Canopy’ method based on high-resolution aerial images. The surface runoff was simulated by the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. Meanwhile, the impacts of different urban dynamics on surface runoff were compared by incorporating a scenario-based urban dynamic modeling approach. The results suggest that, compared with low-density settlements, high-density settlement areas tend to generate more surface runoff within the neighborhood because they have considerably less vegetative surfaces and more built ones. As the development of low-density settlements leads to a greater loss of green and open spaces in the surrounding peri-urban areas, however, the compact growth scenarios characterized by high-density settlements have advantages over low-density scenarios in terms of overall surface runoff reduction at the city scale. Thus, the trade-off between the neighborhood and city scale should be considered when promoting nature-based solutions for surface runoff mitigation. Moreover, the approach presented here can be used as an effective planning tool supporting various urban contexts.

在快速的城市化和气候变化的背景下，了解城市动态对地表径流的影响非常重要。对于未来的城市规划，在影响地表径流以提高城市对局部洪灾的抵御能力的因素方面存在特定的知识差距。这项研究考虑了德国慕尼黑市不同住宅类型（即低密度和高密度住区）的地表覆盖特征，探讨了不同城市动力对地表径流的影响。基于高分辨率航空图像，使用“ i-Tree Canopy”方法对表面覆盖特性进行了量化。地表径流通过土壤保护服务曲线编号（SCS-CN）方法进行模拟。与此同时，通过采用基于情景的城市动力学建模方法，比较了不同城市动力学对地表径流的影响。结果表明，与低密度定居区相比，高密度定居区往往在邻里内产生更多的地表径流，因为它们的植被面少得多，而建筑面则更多。然而，由于低密度居住区的发展导致周围城市周边地区的绿色和开放空间的损失更大，因此，以高密度居住区为特征的紧凑型增长方案在总体表面上比低密度居住区具有优势在城市范围内减少径流量。因此，在推广基于自然的缓解地表径流解决方案时，应考虑到社区与城市规模之间的权衡。此外，