During the last decade, major changes have affected the electricity sector in Algeria. As consequence it recorded an important increase of electricity demand in energy and capacity under the mixt pressure of demography and socio-economic development, climate change, and the depletion of natural gas reserves which imposes new challenges in terms of renewable energies and demand side management. These adjustments enhanced the important role of electricity demand forecasting. The aim of this study is to construct the best overall model that represents the relationship between electricity demand and air temperature, i.e. heating and cooling degree days, and taking into consideration other deterministic variables. A simple multiple regression model has been developed, since it allows us to investigate this relationship in an easy and controlled manner. Additionally, the model can be used to forecast electricity demand for the next year on a daily basis. The results show that CDD and HDD have the highest effect on electricity demand, and can be seen as the main factors affecting the daily load in Algeria. On the other hand, holidays reduce electricity demand in all seasons. We also secluded the dummy representing the holy month of Ramadan where it was clear that the behavior during this holiday increased the electricity demand especially in the summer seasons.

中文翻译：

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阿尔及利亚的电力负荷动态、温度和季节性 Nexus

在过去十年中，阿尔及利亚的电力部门发生了重大变化。因此，在人口和社会经济发展、气候变化以及天然气储备枯竭的混合压力下，能源和容量的电力需求显着增加，这对可再生能源和需求侧管理提出了新的挑战。这些调整增强了电力需求预测的重要作用。本研究的目的是构建代表电力需求与气温（即加热和冷却度天数）之间关系的最佳整体模型，并考虑其他确定性变量。已经开发了一个简单的多元回归模型，因为它允许我们以一种容易和可控的方式研究这种关系。此外，该模型可用于每天预测下一年的电力需求。结果表明，CDD和HDD对电力需求的影响最大，可以看作是影响阿尔及利亚日负荷的主要因素。另一方面，假期减少了所有季节的电力需求。我们还隔离了代表斋月的假人，很明显，这个假期期间的行为增加了电力需求，尤其是在夏季。