BACKGROUND Data regarding incidence, prevalence and long-term outcomes of inflammatory bowel diseases in the UK are limited or outdated. AIMS To investigate incidence and prevalence of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis and risk of colorectal cancer and all-cause mortality in these diseases. METHODS Inflammatory bowel disease cases between 2000 and 2018 were identified from a national primary care database. Inflammatory bowel disease prevalence was forecast until 2025. The association between inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer and all-cause mortality was investigated using age/sex-matched retrospective cohort studies. Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, comorbidity, smoking status and body mass index. RESULTS Ulcerative colitis prevalence increased from 390 to 570 per 100 000 population from 2000 to 2017. Prevalence of Crohn's disease increased from 220 to 400 per 100 000. In 2017 male Crohn's disease prevalence was 0.35% (95% confidence interval 0.34-0.36); female prevalence was 0.44% (0.43-0.45). Prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is predicted to be 1.1% by 2025. Incidence of ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease was 23.2 (22.8-23.6) and 14.3 (14.0-14.7) per 100 000 person-years respectively. Subjects with ulcerative colitis were more likely to develop colorectal cancer than controls (adjusted Hazard Ratio 1.40 [1.23-1.59]). Colorectal cancer rates remained stable in inflammatory bowel diseases over time. Ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.17 [1.14-1.21] and 1.42 [1.36-1.48] respectively). CONCLUSIONS The UK prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease is greater than previous reports suggest and we predict an 11% increase in prevalence by the year 2025. Mortality risk in inflammatory bowel disease and colorectal cancer risk in ulcerative colitis are increased compared to matched controls.

中文翻译：

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英国流行性肠炎的流行病学模式和结局变化：2000-2018年。

背景技术关于英国炎症性肠病的发病率，患病率和长期结果的数据有限或已经过时。目的探讨克罗恩病和溃疡性结肠炎的发病率和患病率，以及结直肠癌的风险和这些疾病的全因死亡率。方法从国家初级保健数据库中鉴定出2000年至2018年之间的炎症性肠病病例。预计到2025年，炎症性肠病的患病率将会上升。使用年龄/性别匹配的回顾性队列研究，研究了炎症性肠病和结直肠癌与全因死亡率之间的关系。根据年龄，性别，剥夺，合并症，吸烟状况和体重指数调整危险比。结果从2000年到2017年，溃疡性结肠炎的患病率从每10万人口390例增加到570例。克罗恩病的患病率从每10万的220增至400.2017年，男性克罗恩病的患病率为0.35％（95％置信区间0.34-0.36）; 女性患病率为0.44％（0.43-0.45）。到2025年，炎症性肠病的患病率预计为1.1％。溃疡性结肠炎和克罗恩病的发病率分别为每10万人年23.2（22.8-23.6）和14.3（14.0-14.7）。溃疡性结肠炎患者比对照组更容易患大肠癌（调整后的危险比1.40 [1.23-1.59]）。随着时间的推移，在炎症性肠病中大肠癌的发生率保持稳定。溃疡性结肠炎和克罗恩病与全因死亡率的风险增加相关（分别为1.17 [1.14-1.21]和1.42 [1.36-1.48]）。