Abstract Ecological restoration is a key tool in offsetting habitat loss that threatens biodiversity worldwide, but few projects are rigorously evaluated to determine if conservation objectives are achieved. We tested whether restoration outcomes for an imperiled bird, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera; GWWA) met the assumptions of the ‘Field of Dreams’ hypothesis or whether local and regional population dynamics impacted restoration success. From 2015 to 18, we surveyed 514 points located in recently restored successional habitats. We used new- and published data on the survival of 341 nests and 258 fledglings to estimate GWWA breeding productivity. Occupancy and colonization of restored habitats were significantly higher in our Western Study Region (Minnesota and Wisconsin) than our Eastern Study Region (Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey), a pattern that mirrored broader regional population trends. At local scales, productivity was high in Eastern Pennsylvania (>3 independent juveniles/pair/year) but low in Central Pennsylvania (1 juvenile/pair/year) while both Western and Central Minnesota hosted intermediate productivity (between 1 and 2 juveniles/pair/year). Productivity and occupancy covaried locally in the Eastern Study Region, while occupancy was high in the Western Study Region, despite intermediate productivity. These differences have profound implications for restoration outcomes, as GWWA possessed robust capacity to respond to habitat restoration in both regions, but this capacity was conditional upon local productivity where the species is rare. Our findings suggest that, even when restoration efforts are focused on a single species and use comparable prescriptions, interactions among processes governing habitat selection, settlement, and productivity can yield variable restoration outcomes.

中文翻译：

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区域丰度和当地繁殖生产力解释了迁徙鸣禽恢复栖息地的占有率

摘要 生态恢复是抵消威胁全球生物多样性的栖息地丧失的关键工具，但很少有项目经过严格评估以确定保护目标是否实现。我们测试了濒危鸟类金翅莺（Vermivora chrysoptera；GWWA）的恢复结果是否符合“梦想之地”假设的假设，或者当地和区域人口动态是否影响了恢复成功。从 2015 年到 18 年，我们调查了位于最近恢复的演替栖息地的 514 个点。我们使用关于 341 个巢穴和 258 个雏鸟的存活率的新的和已发表的数据来估计 GWWA 育种生产力。我们西部研究区（明尼苏达州和威斯康星州）的恢复栖息地的入住率和定植率明显高于东部研究区（马里兰州、宾夕法尼亚州、和新泽西州），这种模式反映了更广泛的区域人口趋势。在当地范围内，宾夕法尼亚东部的生产力较高（> 3 只独立幼鱼/对/年），但宾夕法尼亚州中部较低（1 只幼鱼/对/年），而明尼苏达州西部和中部的生产力中等（1 到 2 只幼鱼/对） /年）。东部研究区的生产力和入住率在当地协变，而西部研究区的入住率较高，尽管生产力中等。这些差异对恢复结果具有深远的影响，因为 GWWA 拥有强大的能力来应对这两个地区的栖息地恢复，但这种能力取决于当地物种稀有的生产力。我们的研究结果表明，