Understanding the potential of bioenergy is crucial to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting renewable energy with higher stability than solar and wind power for the grid. Current bioenergy potential research relies on statistical agricultural data. This study uses a crop growth model (CGM) and existing crop phenological database to estimate rice and wheat production in Hokkaido under two scenarios, namely energy-and food-oriented scenarios, considering two different targets energy and/or food production, for each founds the optimal sowing season and compare results with the current utilized crop. Results also present a trade-off of food and energy when utilizing different crop varieties. A clear difference in energy potential is observed when prioritizing either food or energy production. The optimal season and crop variety differs between the two scenarios, providing important insights for policymakers and crop rotation analysts. This study clarifies that biomass energy production does not conflict with agriculture though it presents the food-energy trade-off per hectare of land depending on the crop or crop variety. Furthermore, it illustrates the importance of CGMs and environmental measurements as tools for determining food and biomass energy potential accelerating the achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals.

了解生物能源的潜力对于减少温室气体排放和促进可再生能源的稳定至关重要，可再生能源的稳定性高于太阳能和风能。当前的生物能源潜力研究依赖于农业统计数据。这项研究使用作物生长模型（CGM）和现有的作物物候数据库估算北海道在两种情景下的稻米和小麦产量，即以能源和粮食为导向的情景，并针对每个发现考虑了两个不同的目标能源和/或粮食生产最佳播种季节，并将结果与​​当前使用的农作物进行比较。当利用不同的农作物品种时，结果还提出了食物和能源的权衡。在优先考虑食品或能源生产时，会观察到明显的能源潜力差异。两种情况之间的最佳季节和作物品种不同，这为决策者和轮作分析人员提供了重要的见识。这项研究澄清了生物量能源的生产与农业没有冲突，尽管它提出了每公顷土地的粮食能源权衡，具体取决于作物或作物品种。此外，它说明了CGM和环境测量作为确定食品和生物质能潜力的工具的重要性，这些工具可加速实现可持续发展目标。