What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the same way as the past. Moreover, forecasts are influenced by the reliability of the data, vested interests, and what variables are being predicted. Also, psychological factors play a significant role in how people perceive and react to the danger from the disease and the fear that it may affect them personally. This paper introduces an objective approach to predicting the continuation of the COVID-19 using a simple, but powerful method to do so. Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19.

新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）会对全球产生什么影响？回答这个问题需要准确预测确诊病例的传播情况以及分析死亡人数和康复人数。然而，预测需要大量的历史数据。与此同时，没有任何预测是确定的，因为未来很少会像过去一样重演。此外，预测还受到数据可靠性、既得利益以及预测变量的影响。此外，心理因素在人们如何感知和应对疾病的危险以及对疾病可能影响他们个人的恐惧方面发挥着重要作用。本文介绍了一种客观的方法来预测 COVID-19 的持续情况，使用一种简单但强大的方法来实现这一目的。假设所使用的数据可靠，并且未来将继续遵循该疾病过去的模式，我们的预测表明，确诊的 COVID-19 病例将持续增加，并具有相当大的相关不确定性。这些风险远非对称，因为低估其像流行病一样的传播，并且没有采取足够的措施来遏制它，比过度支出和在不需要时过于谨慎要严重得多。本文描述了实时预测活动的时间表，这对规划和决策具有巨大的潜在影响，并为确诊的 COVID-19 病例提供了客观的预测。