Understanding species distribution over time is a key topic of conservation biogeography, especially when it comes to species with low mobility or low adaptability, which may be most affected by climate change. We investigated the past, current and future climate suitability of Dinomys branickii (Rodentia), a species with characteristics that make it especially vulnerable to such changes. We applied climate suitability modeling (CSM) to evaluate how D. branickii responds to environmental changes over time. We performed CSM for the periods of last glacial maximum (LGM), mid Holocene (MH), current (1960–1990) and future (2041–2060). We retained models that presented true skill statistic > 0.4 to project consensus maps. The area of maximum suitability decreased over time (LGM—22.2%; MH—9.4%; current—8.9%; future—7.5%), being restricted to the westernmost portion of the Neotropics, with less adequacy in the Amazon in the future scenario. We observed this decline in the area of climate suitability of D. branickii including areas within protected areas (PAs), in the current (suitable area in 1776 PAs) and future (in 1661 PAs) scenarios. Our results demonstrated the dynamics of climate suitability for D. branickii, indicating that PAs on Llanos, Central Amazon and, predominantly, on the Andean slope may function as a future refuge for the species. We show potential loss of suitable area for this species over time, and preventive actions are thus necessary, such as a connected network of PAs from Amazon to Andes.

了解随时间变化的物种分布是保护生物地理学的一个关键主题，尤其是对于流动性低或适应性差的物种，这可能受气候变化影响最大。我们调查了Dinomys branickii（Rodentia）的过去，现在和未来的气候适应性，该物种的特征使其特别容易受到此类变化的影响。我们应用了气候适宜性建模（CSM）来评估布朗尼假单胞菌随着时间的流逝应对环境变化。我们在最后一次冰期最大值（LGM），中全新世（MH），当前（1960–1990）和未来（2041–2060）期间进行了CSM。我们保留了呈现真实技能统计> 0.4的模型来预测共识图。随着时间的推移，最大适应性区域有所减少（LGM-22.2％； MH-9.4％；当前-8.9％；将来-7.5％），仅限于新热带地区的最西端，在未来的情况下，亚马逊地区的适应性会降低。我们观察到了目前（在1776年的PAs中适合的地区）和在未来（1661年的PAs）中保护区（PAs）内布朗氏梭菌的气候适应性的下降。我们的结果证明了D. branickii的气候适宜性动态。，表明在拉诺斯，中亚亚马逊地区以及主要在安第斯山坡上的PA可能成为该物种的未来避难所。随着时间的流逝，我们显示出该物种合适面积的潜在损失，因此有必要采取预防措施，例如从亚马逊到安第斯山脉的PA的连接网络。