Abstract Following a comprehensive literature survey, this paper will first address the theoretical underpinnings of stochastic modeling. An algorithm to model arch dam inhomogeneity in terms of characteristic length is presented next and is applied to assess the impact of concrete's elastic modulus and volumetric AAR expansion. Results are contrasted with both a single deterministic analysis, and a series of classical Monte Carlo simulations in which non-Gaussian stochastically varying properties are used. The impact of randomness in material properties on displacements, joint openings, and stresses are investigated. It is found that whereas mean values of these responses are for the most part little impacted, standard deviations exhibit a greater variation vis a vis simple Monte Carlo simulations. Furthermore, the safety is assessed through fragility surfaces, and meta-modeling. This study determined that whereas randomness may affect local results e.g. stresses, their impact may be neglected for globally averaged responses e.g. displacements.

中文翻译：

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碱骨料反应混凝土坝的随机分析

摘要 经过全面的文献调查，本文将首先讨论随机建模的理论基础。接下来介绍了一种根据特征长度对拱坝不均匀性进行建模的算法，并将其应用于评估混凝土弹性模量和体积 AAR 膨胀的影响。结果与单个确定性分析和一系列使用非高斯随机变化特性的经典蒙特卡罗模拟进行对比。研究了材料特性的随机性对位移、接头开口和应力的影响。发现虽然这些响应的平均值在大多数情况下几乎没有受到影响，但与简单的蒙特卡罗模拟相比，标准偏差表现出更大的变化。此外，安全性通过脆性表面和元建模进行评估。这项研究确定，虽然随机性可能会影响局部结果，例如应力，但对于全局平均响应，例如位移，它们的影响可能被忽略。