Disturbance regimes are changing in forests across the world in response to global climate change. Despite the profound impacts of disturbances on ecosystem services and biodiversity, assessments of disturbances at the global scale remain scarce. Here, we analyzed natural disturbances in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems for the period 2001-2014, aiming to 1) quantify their within- and between-biome variation and 2) compare the climate sensitivity of disturbances across biomes. We studied 103 unmanaged forest landscapes with a total land area of 28.2 x 10(6) ha, distributed across five continents. A consistent and comprehensive quantification of disturbances was derived by combining satellite-based disturbance maps with local expert knowledge of disturbance agents. We used Gaussian finite mixture models to identify clusters of landscapes with similar disturbance activity as indicated by the percent forest area disturbed as well as the size, edge density and perimeter-area-ratio of disturbed patches. The climate sensitivity of disturbances was analyzed using Bayesian generalized linear mixed effect models and a globally consistent climate dataset. Within-biome variation in natural disturbances was high in both boreal and temperate biomes, and disturbance patterns did not vary systematically with latitude or biome. The emergent clusters of disturbance activity in the boreal zone were similar to those in the temperate zone, but boreal landscapes were more likely to experience high disturbance activity than their temperate counterparts. Across both biomes high disturbance activity was particularly associated with wildfire, and was consistently linked to years with warmer and drier than average conditions. Natural disturbances are a key driver of variability in boreal and temperate forest ecosystems, with high similarity in the disturbance patterns between both biomes. The universally high climate sensitivity of disturbances across boreal and temperate ecosystems indicates that future climate change could substantially increase disturbance activity.

中文翻译：

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整个北方和温带森林生态系统的自然干扰的全球一致气候敏感性

为应对全球气候变化，世界各地森林的干扰机制正在发生变化。尽管干扰对生态系统服务和生物多样性产生了深远的影响，但在全球范围内对干扰的评估仍然很少。在这里，我们分析了 2001-2014 年期间北方和温带森林生态系统的自然干扰，旨在 1) 量化它们的生物群落内部和之间的变化，以及 2) 比较跨生物群落干扰的气候敏感性。我们研究了 103 个未管理的森林景观，总土地面积为 28.2 x 10(6) 公顷，分布在五大洲。通过将基于卫星的扰动图与扰动因素的当地专家知识相结合，得出了对扰动的一致和全面的量化。我们使用高斯有限混合模型来识别具有类似干扰活动的景观集群，如受干扰的森林面积百分比以及受干扰斑块的大小、边缘密度和周长面积比所示。使用贝叶斯广义线性混合效应模型和全球一致的气候数据集分析了干扰的气候敏感性。在北方和温带生物群落中，自然干扰的生物群落内变化很大，并且干扰模式不随纬度或生物群落而系统地变化。北方地区出现的扰动活动群与温带地区相似，但北方地区比温带地区更容易经历高干扰活动。在这两个生物群落中，高干扰活动与野火特别相关，并且始终与比平均条件更温暖和干燥的年份有关。自然干扰是北方和温带森林生态系统变化的关键驱动因素，两种生物群落之间的干扰模式高度相似。跨越北方和温带生态系统的干扰对气候的普遍高敏感性表明，未来的气候变化可能会大大增加干扰活动。