Wildlife diseases pose a substantial threat to the provisioning of ecosystem services. We use a novel modeling approach to study the potential loss of these services through the imminent introduction of chronic wasting disease (CWD) to elk populations in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). A specific concern is that concentrating elk at feedgrounds may exacerbate the spread of CWD, whereas eliminating feedgrounds may increase the number of elk on private ranchlands and the transmission of a second disease, brucellosis, from elk to cattle. To evaluate the consequences of management strategies given the threat of two concurrent wildlife diseases, we develop a spatiotemporal bioeconomic model. GPS data from elk and landscape attributes are used to predict migratory behavior and population densities with and without supplementary feeding. We use a 4,800 km² area around Pinedale, Wyoming containing four existing feedgrounds as a case study. For this area, we simulate welfare estimates under a variety of management strategies. Our results indicate that continuing to feed elk could result in substantial welfare losses for the case‐study region. Therefore, to maximize the present value of economic net benefits generated by the local elk population upon CWD’s arrival in the region, wildlife managers may wish to consider discontinuing elk feedgrounds while simultaneously developing new methods to mitigate the financial impact to ranchers of possible brucellosis transmission to livestock. More generally, our methods can be used to weigh the costs and benefits of human‐wildlife interactions in the presence of multiple disease risks.

中文翻译：

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慢性浪费疾病破坏了在大黄石生态系统中控制布鲁氏菌病传播的努力。

野生动物疾病严重威胁到生态系统服务的提供。我们使用一种新颖的建模方法来研究通过向大黄石生态系统（GYE）的麋鹿种群即将引入慢性浪费疾病（CWD）来减少这些服务的潜在损失。一个特别令人担忧的问题是，将麋鹿集中在饲养场上可能会加剧CWD的传播，而消除饲养场则可能会增加私人牧场上的麋鹿数量，并增加第二种疾病布鲁氏菌病从麋鹿到牛的传播。为了评估在同时存在两种野生动植物疾病的威胁下管理策略的后果，我们建立了一个时空生物经济模型。来自麋鹿和景观属性的GPS数据可用于预测有无补充喂养的迁徙行为和人口密度。怀俄明州派恩代尔（Pinedale）周围的^2个区域作为案例研究包含四个现有饲养场。对于这一领域，我们在各种管理策略下模拟福利估算。我们的结果表明，继续给麋鹿喂食可能会导致个案研究区域的大量福利损失。因此，为了使CWD到达该地区后当地麋鹿种群所产生的经济净收益的现值最大化，野生动植物管理者不妨考虑停止麋鹿饲养场，同时开发新的方法来减轻可能对布鲁氏菌病传播给牧场主的财务影响。家畜。更广泛地说，在存在多种疾病风险的情况下，我们的方法可用于权衡人类与野生动物互动的成本和收益。