Several observational studies have shown decreases in measured influenza vaccine effectiveness (mVE) during influenza seasons. One study found decreases of 6–11%/month during the 2011–2012 to 2014–2015 seasons. These findings could indicate waning immunity but could also occur if vaccine effectiveness is stable and vaccine provides partial protection in all vaccinees (“leaky”) rather than complete protection in a subset of vaccinees. Since it is unknown whether influenza vaccine is leaky, we simulated the 2011–2012 to 2014–2015 influenza seasons to estimate the potential contribution of leaky vaccine effect to the observed decline in mVE.

中文翻译：

---

随着时间的推移，测量的流感疫苗有效性减弱：疫苗泄漏效应的潜在贡献

几项观察性研究表明，流感季节期间测得的流感疫苗有效性 (mVE) 有所下降。一项研究发现，在 2011-2012 至 2014-2015 季节期间，每月减少 6-11%。这些发现可能表明免疫力减弱，但也可能发生在疫苗有效性稳定且疫苗对所有疫苗接种者提供部分保护（“泄漏”）而不是对一部分疫苗接种者提供完全保护的情况下。由于尚不清楚流感疫苗是否泄漏，我们模拟了 2011-2012 年至 2014-2015 年流感季节，以估计疫苗泄漏效应对观察到的 mVE 下降的潜在贡献。