Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is the hub of Northeast Asia and its geopolitics is of great significance, whose foreign policy trend is not only related to the peace and stability of the region, but also one of the major variables affecting cooperation in Northeast Asia. According to the data on North Korea’s grain yield collected by the Korea National Statistical Office, supplemented by the data on international food aid to North Korea collected by the World Food Programme, and combined with the judgment of 10 experts from China, South Korea and the United States on the Hawk and Dove Index of North Korea’s foreign policy from 1990 to 2018, we use empirical mode decomposition wavelet transform data analysis and feature extraction methods to study the impact relationship, and OLS regression analysis to study the actual cycle of transformation. We found that: (1) North Korea’s grain output is an important indicator that affects its foreign policy tendency (hawks or doves). The hawk refers to those who take a tough attitude in policy and prefer rigid means such as containment, intimidation and conflicts; the dove refers to those who take mild attitude in policy, and prefer to adopt flexible means such as negotiation, cooperation, and coordination. When it comes to grain yield increase, North Korea’s foreign policy tends to be hawkish; when it comes to grain reduction, its dovish tendency will be on the rise. This is because food increase can alleviate grain shortage in North Korea and enhance its ability to adopt tough policies in its foreign policy. However, decreases in grain production will lead to adopt a more moderate policy and seek international cooperation and assistance to ease the internal pressure caused by grain shortage. (2) North Korea’s grain yield influencing its foreign policy (hawks or doves) has a lag phase of about 3 years. Such being the case, the accumulated grain during the production increase period has enhanced North Korea’s ability to cope with grain reduction in the short term. Secondly, the North Korean government blames the reduction on foreign sanctions, which will instead make the North Korean people more determined to resist external pressure. Therefore, we can use the changes in North Korea’s grain output to predict the direction of its foreign policy so as to more accurately judge the development of the Korean Peninsula and more effectively promote the process of peace and cooperation in Northeast Asia. We concluded that grain production will affect its policy sustainability in North Korea.

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朝鲜的实证分析：粮食产量会影响外交政策走向吗？

朝鲜是东北亚的枢纽，地缘政治意义重大，其外交政策走向不仅关系到地区的和平与稳定，也是影响东北亚合作的主要变数之一。根据韩国国家统计局收集的朝鲜粮食产量数据，辅以世界粮食计划署收集的国际对朝鲜粮食援助数据，并结合中、韩、韩10位专家的判断。美国对朝鲜1990年至2018年外交政策的鹰鸽指数，我们采用经验模态分解小波变换数据分析和特征提取方法研究其影响关系，和 OLS 回归分析来研究转换的实际周期。我们发现：（1）朝鲜的粮食产量是影响其外交政策倾向（鹰派或鸽派）的重要指标。鹰派是指在政策上态度强硬，喜欢遏制、恐吓、冲突等硬性手段的人；鸽子是指在政策上采取温和态度的人，倾向于采取谈判、合作、协调等灵活方式。在粮食增产方面，朝鲜的外交政策趋于鹰派；在减粮方面，其鸽派倾向将有所上升。这是因为增加粮食可以缓解朝鲜的粮食短缺问题，并增强其在外交政策中采取强硬政策的能力。然而，粮食减产将导致采取更加温和的政策，寻求国际合作和援助，以缓解粮食短缺造成的内部压力。(2) 朝鲜粮食产量对其外交政策的影响（鹰派或鸽派）有3年左右的滞后期。如此一来，增产期积累的粮食，增强了朝鲜短期应对减粮的能力。其次，朝鲜政府将减少制裁归咎于外国制裁，这反而会让朝鲜人民更加坚定地抵抗外部压力。所以，我们可以利用朝鲜粮食产量的变化来预测其外交政策的走向，从而更准确地判断朝鲜半岛的发展，更有效地推动东北亚和平与合作的进程。我们得出的结论是，粮食生产将影响其在朝鲜的政策可持续性。