Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of CHABs since the early 2000's dominated by Microcystis aeruginosa, which produce toxins known as microcystins. We develop an approach to predict the spatially- and temporally-resolved probability of exceeding a public health advisory (PHA) level (6 μg/L) of microcystins in the western basin of Lake Erie that would be suitable for use in a forecast system, consisting of 1) an existing HAB chlorophyll forecast system, 2) a toxin-chlorophyll-a relationship that is updated weekly from observations, and 3) a statistical model relating observed relative frequency of exceeding the PHA to model predictions over a hindcast period. We evaluate the system's performance and the system's useful level of skill. This novel approach to a CHAB toxin forecast system could provide a decision support tool to Lake Erie stakeholders, and the approach may be adapted to other systems.

自2000年代初期以来，伊利湖（Lake Erie）经历了CHAB的复兴，而铜绿微囊藻（Microcystis aeruginosa）会产生称为微囊藻毒素的毒素。我们开发了一种方法来预测在伊利湖西部盆地中超过微囊藻毒素的公共卫生咨询（PHA）水平（6μg/ L）的时空分辨概率，该方法适用于预测系统，包括1）现有的HAB叶绿素预测系统，2）毒素-叶绿素-a关系（根据观察值每周更新）和3）统计模型，该统计模型将观察到的超过PHA的相对频率与后代预测模型化。我们评估系统的性能和系统的有用技能水平。CHAB毒素预测系统的这种新颖方法可以为伊利湖利益相关者提供决策支持工具，并且该方法可能适用于其他系统。