Abstract Climate change has compromised global cereal production, particularly in semiarid regions where small changes in rainfall and temperature or excessive heat can have large effects on crop productivity. Central Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate change, but the understanding of the impacts of climate change on yields is incomplete for this region. We used fixed-effect panel regressions to quantify the impacts of climate trends on wheat and barley yields from 1980 to 2015 in the northern part of Kazakhstan, which is a globally important cereal-producing region. Our results suggest large spatial variations in the impacts of climate change on yields. Compared with the counterfactual situation without climate trends, the observed changes in climate reduced wheat and barley yields by 1.9% and 4.8%, respectively, in the primary cereal-producing region in the west of the study area. These negative impacts were partly compensated for by positive effects in the eastern part of the study region. Extreme heat events had little impact on wheat and barley yields. Suitable adaptation strategies include switching to more drought-resistant crops or to extensive livestock production in areas where climate change has negatively affected crop yields, and the expansion of cereal production in areas that have benefited from climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对哈萨克斯坦小麦和大麦产量的空间变化影响

摘要 气候变化影响了全球谷物生产，特别是在半干旱地区，降雨和温度的微小变化或过热都会对作物生产力产生很大影响。中亚特别容易受到气候变化的影响，但对该地区气候变化对产量的影响的理解并不完整。我们使用固定效应面板回归来量化 1980 年至 2015 年气候趋势对哈萨克斯坦北部小麦和大麦产量的影响，哈萨克斯坦北部是全球重要的谷物产区。我们的结果表明气候变化对产量的影响存在很大的空间差异。与没有气候趋势的反事实情况相比，观测到的气候变化使小麦和大麦的产量分别减少了 1.9% 和 4.8%，在研究区西部的主要谷物产区。这些负面影响部分被研究区域东部的积极影响所抵消。极端高温事件对小麦和大麦产量几乎没有影响。适当的适应战略包括在气候变化对作物产量产生负面影响的地区改用抗旱性更强的作物或广泛的畜牧生产，以及在受益于气候变化的地区扩大谷物生产。