A model for the relationship between wing fray and chronological and ovarian ages in tsetse (Glossina spp).,Medical and Veterinary Entomology

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A model for the relationship between wing fray and chronological and ovarian ages in tsetse (Glossina spp).
Medical and Veterinary Entomology ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-28 , DOI: 10.1111/mve.12439
J W Hargrove ₁

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Age‐dependent mortality changes in haematophagous insects are difficult to measure but are important determinants of population dynamics and vectorial capacity. A Markov process was used to model age‐dependent changes in wing fray in tsetse (Glossina spp), calibrated using published mark–recapture data for male G. m. morsitans in Tanzania. The model was applied to female G. m. morsitans , captured in Zimbabwe using a vehicle‐mounted electric net and subjected to ovarian dissection and wing fray analysis. Rates of fray increased significantly with age in males but not females, where the rate was constant for ovarian categories 0–3. A jump in mean fray between ovarian categories 3 and 4 + 4n is consistent with the latter category including flies that have ovulated 4, 8, 12, 16 times and so on. The magnitude of the jump could, theoretically, facilitate improved mortality estimates. In practice, although knowledge of fly mortality was required for modelling wing fray, mortality estimates derived from ovarian dissection data are independent of patterns and rates of change in wing fray. Significantly better fits to ovarian age data resulted when age‐specific mortality was modelled as the sum of two exponentials, with high mortality in young and old flies, than when mortality was constant at 2.3% per day.

中文翻译：

采采蝇的机翼磨损与年代和卵巢年龄之间的关系的模型（Glossina spp）。

噬血性昆虫的年龄依赖性死亡率变化很难测量，但是种群动态和矢量能力的重要决定因素。马尔可夫过程用于模拟采采蝇（Glossina spp）中翼节的年龄相关变化，并使用已发布的雄性G. m标记捕获数据进行了校准。坦桑尼亚的morsitans。该模型被应用于雌性G.m。在津巴布韦使用车载电网捕获的morsitans，并进行了卵巢解剖和翼磨损分析。男性的磨损率随着年龄的增长而显着增加，而女性则没有，而在0-3岁的卵巢中，磨损率是恒定的。卵巢3和4 + 4 n级之间的平均竞争性跃升与后一类一致，包括排卵了4、8、12、16次的果蝇等等。从理论上讲，跳跃的幅度可以促进死亡率估计的提高。在实践中，尽管要建立机翼磨损模型需要掌握蝇死亡率的知识，但从卵巢解剖数据得出的死亡率估算值与机翼磨损模式和变化速率无关。当将特定年龄的死亡率建模为两个指数的总和时，无论年龄大小，苍蝇的死亡率都很高，因此，与每天恒定在2.3％的死亡率相比，卵巢年龄数据的拟合度更高。

更新日期：2020-03-28

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