The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km 2 ) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km 2 . Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km 2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km 2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

中文翻译：

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用于预测 Quercus libani Olivier 当前和未来潜在地理分布的 MaxEnt 建模

该研究的目的是模拟土耳其树种 Quercus libani Olivier（黎巴嫩橡树）的当前和潜在未来分布，并预测其在不同气候变化情景下的地理分布变化。在这项研究中，使用了从 WorldClim 数据库收集的 19 个生物气候变量，空间分辨率为 30 弧秒（~1 km 2 ）。通过主成分分析(PCA)对31组物种存在数据的相关性高的生物气候数据进行缩减，并使用MaxEnt 3.4.1软件识别当前和潜在分布。为了预测该物种的分布将如何受到气候变化的影响，其到 2050 年和 2070 年的潜在地理分布在代表性浓度路径 (RCP) RCP 4 下建模。5 和 RCP 8.5 使用社区气候系统模型（CCSM，第 4 版）的物种情景，该模型是基于第五届政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）报告的气候变化模型。进行变化分析以确定其当前和未来分布区域之间的空间差异。研究结果表明，目前我国栎树适宜分布区面积为72,819 km 2 。根据 CCSM4 气候模型，到 2070 年，根据 RCP 4.5 情景，适宜面积将下降到 67,580 km 2 ，或在 RCP 8.5 情景中下降到 63,390 km 2 。这可能会导致该物种未来种群数量的减少。变化分析表明，在全球气候变化情景（RCP 4.5和RCP 8. 5) 对于当前和未来的潜在分布区域。在此背景下，我们的研究结果表明，对于该物种的管理，应采取保护性环境措施，在土地利用和森林管理规划中需要考虑气候变化模型。