Abstract

Transportation policy and planning decisions, including decisions on new infrastructure and public transport improvements, affect local and global environmental conditions. This work studies the effect of increased road capacity on traffic-related emissions in Bogotá using a tool that couples a transportation model with emission factors from COPERT IV. We followed a parametric approach varying transport supply and demand, comparing three scenarios: a baseline scenario that represents the transportation system in Bogota in 2015; scenario 1 incorporates five highway capacity-enhancement projects in Bogotá and assumes insensitive travel demand; scenario 2 incorporates the new highway projects but assumes a demand increase of 13% in vehicle trips with private cars. Results include daily and annual values of traffic-related emissions of five air pollutant criteria: CO, NO_x, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOC for the baseline scenario, scenario 1, and scenario 2. We found a reduction in emissions after adding highway capacity and assuming inelastic demand (scenario 1). Scenario 1 results in a 15% reduction in PM₁₀ emissions and a 10% reduction in NO_x emissions. In contrast, results for scenario 2 suggest increased emissions for all air pollutant criteria (e.g., VOC and CO emissions increase by 21% and 22% compared with the baseline scenario). Therefore, new traffic demand would eliminate the emission savings observed in scenario 1 and could potentially further degrade air quality in Bogotá. While an exact estimate of induced demand that may result from highway expansion in Bogotá is not available, this analysis highlights that such projects could lead to an increase in emissions unless there is a combined effort to managing demand of private vehicle trips.

中文翻译：

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运输供应变化对空气污染的排放影响：哥伦比亚波哥大为例。

摘要

运输政策和规划决策（包括有关新基础设施和公共交通改善的决策）会影响本地和全球环境状况。这项工作使用了一种将运输模型与COPERT IV排放因子相结合的工具，研究了波哥大道路容量增加对交通相关排放的影响。我们采用参数化方法来改变运输供求，比较了三种情况：代表2015年波哥大运输系统的基线情况；方案1包含了波哥大的五个高速公路通行能力增强项目，并假设对旅行的需求不敏感；方案2包含了新的高速公路项目，但假设私家车出行的需求增长了13％。，基准情景，情景1和情景2的_x，PM ₁₀，SO ₂和VOC。我们发现在增加高速公路通行能力并假设需求没有弹性后，排放量减少了（情景1）。方案1可使PM ₁₀排放量减少15％，NO _x减少10％排放。相反，方案2的结果表明，所有空气污染物标准的排放量均增加（例如，与基准方案相比，VOC和CO排放量分别增加了21％和22％）。因此，新的交通需求将消除方案1中观察到的排放节省，并可能进一步降低波哥大的空气质量。虽然无法准确估计波哥大公路扩张可能引起的诱导需求，但该分析强调，除非共同努力管理私人车辆出行需求，否则此类项目可能导致排放量增加。