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A review of the role of bioenergy modelling in renewable energy research & policy development
Biomass & Bioenergy ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105542
Andrew Welfle , Patricia Thornley , Mirjam Röder

Transition towards renewable low carbon energy is a fundamental element of climate change mitigation, energy from biomass technologies are targeted within many country's decarbonisation strategies. Decision makers globally face many challenges developing strategies to drive this transition; models are increasingly used to road-test policy interventions before their implemented. A Bioenergy Literature Database was developed of 124,285 papers published 2000–2018. These document an exponential rise in research focusing on biomass and bioenergy. On average 35.4% of papers apply modelling analyses, 99.5% of these use bespoke models rather than high profile Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) or Energy System Models – although it is these high profile models that are widely used in policy development. A review of the role of bioenergy within energy models is undertaken with a key objective of critiquing their performances in analysing bioenergy research questions. IAMs are found to be widely applied to investigate the impact of bioenergy within wider energy and environmental systems, e.g. for reducing emissions. Energy System Models focus on bioenergy processes, technologies and feedstocks, although don't capture wider environmental, economic and social themes. Specialist Bioenergy Models offer methods for bespoke analyses of all bioenergy issues, their narrow system boundaries generate targeted outputs but wider effects such as land-use change may not be captured. Caution is required when interpreting modelling outputs, particularly when used to inform policy. It's not feasible to develop all-encompassing bioenergy models covering all nuances between systems, but there is strong argument for using multiple models in parallel to build robust overall conclusions.



中文翻译:

生物能源模型在可再生能源研究和政策制定中的作用综述

向可再生低碳能源过渡是缓解气候变化的基本要素,许多国家的脱碳战略都将生物质能转化为能源。全球决策者在制定战略以推动这一转变方面面临许多挑战。模型越来越多地用于对政策干预措施实施之前进行路试。开发了2000-2018年发表的124,285篇论文的生物能源文献数据库。这些记录了专注于生物质和生物能源的研究呈指数增长。平均有35.4%的论文采用模型分析,其中99.5%的是使用定制模型,而不是高调的综合评估模型(IAM)或能源系统模型-尽管正是这些高调的模型被广泛用于政策制定。综述了生物能源在能源模型中的作用,其主要目标是评估生物能源在分析生物能源研究问题中的表现。IAM被广泛应用于调查生物能源在更广泛的能源和环境系统中的影响,例如减少排放。能源系统模型侧重于生物能源过程,技术和原料,尽管没有涵盖更广泛的环境,经济和社会主题。专家生物能源模型提供了用于所有生物能源问题的定制分析的方法,它们狭窄的系统边界可产生目标输出,但可能无法捕获更广泛的影响,例如土地用途变化。在解释建模输出时,尤其是在用于通知政策时,必须谨慎。它'

更新日期:2020-03-28
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