Purpose

The clinical outcome after in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) is diverse in infertility patients with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram based on an association of patients’ characteristics to predict the live birth rate in PCOS patients.

Methods

All women in a public university hospital who attempted to conceive by IVF/ICSI for PCOS infertility from January 2014 to October 2018 were included. The nomogram was built from a training cohort of 178 consecutive patients and tested on an independent validation cohort of 81 patients. PCOS was confirmed in all participants.

Results

Three variates significantly associated with live birth rate of PCOS patients were BMI, total serum cholesterol (TC) and basal FSH. This predictive model built on the basis of BMI, TC, basal FSH, type of embryo transferred and age showed good calibration and discriminatory abilities, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.708 (95% CI 0.632–0.785) for the training cohort. The nomogram showed satisfactory goodness-of-fit and discrimination abilities in the independent validation cohort, with an AUC of 0.686 (95% CI 0.556–0.815).

Conclusion

Our simple evidence-based nomogram presents graphically risk factors and prognostic models for IVF/ICSI outcomes in patients with PCOS, which can offer useful guidance to clinicians and patients for individual adjuvant therapy.

中文翻译：

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超重和高血清总胆固醇是PCOS患者IVF / ICSI周期结局的危险因素，并建立了PCOS特异性活产率预测模型。

目的

在多囊卵巢综合征（PCOS）的不育患者中，体外受精（IVF）或胞浆内精子注射（ICSI）后的临床结果是多种多样的。这项研究的目的是根据患者特征的关联性开发诺模图，以预测PCOS患者的活产率。

方法

从2014年1月至2018年10月，尝试通过IVF / ICSI为PCOS不孕症受孕的所有公立大学医院妇女。列线图是从178名连续患者的培训队列中构建的，并在81名患者的独立验证队列中进行了测试。所有参与者均确认了PCOS。

结果

与PCOS患者活产率显着相关的三个变量是BMI，总血清胆固醇（TC）和基础FSH。基于BMI，TC，基础FSH，胚胎类型和年龄的预测模型建立了良好的校准和区分能力，曲线下面积（AUC）为0.708（95％CI 0.632–0.785）。队列。在独立的验证队列中，列线图显示出令人满意的拟合优度和区分能力，AUC为0.686（95％CI 0.556–0.815）。

结论

我们简单的基于证据的列线图以图形方式显示PCOS患者IVF / ICSI结果的危险因素和预后模型，可为临床和患者进行个体辅助治疗提供有用的指导。