Straw open burning is common practice in agricultural production, and has been identified as highly relevant to regional haze. A variety of control measures for straw open burning have been adopted in agricultural areas to mitigate air pollution, but their contribution to air quality improvement is difficult to estimate, and has been addressed by few studies. Using Jilin Province during the post-harvest season (PHS) as a study area, we empirically evaluated the contribution of the Straw Open Burning Prohibition Plan (SOBP) to air quality improvement by response surface methodology (RMS) modeling combined with scenario analysis, and constructed and introduced a stagnant index to the RMS model. The results indicated that the adoption of the SOBP by Jilin Province in the 2018 PHS mitigated air pollution effectively. The contribution of the plan to air quality improvement was also evaluated under two scenarios: if the SOBP had been implemented during the 2015 PHS, 2016 PHS, and 2017 PHS, the cumulative PM2.5 concentration would have declined in these years by 23%, 15%, and 22%, respectively, compared with their actual values; if the SOBP had not been implemented in the 2018 PHS, the cumulative PM2.5 concentration would have increased by 10%-14% compared with the actual value. The results can provide decision makers with a reference to assess the environmental performance of the SOBP, and guidance for establishing scientific environmental regulations for cleaner agricultural production and sustainable development.

中文翻译：

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禁止露天焚烧秸秆的禁令是否减轻了空气污染？吉林省收获后季节的实证研究。

秸秆露天焚烧是农业生产中的普遍做法，已被确认与区域烟霾高度相关。为了减轻空气污染，农业地区已经采取了多种秸秆露天焚烧的控制措施，但是这些措施对改善空气质量的贡献很难估计，并且很少有研究涉及。我们使用响应面方法（RMS）建模与情景分析相结合的方法，以吉林省在收获后季节（PHS）期间为研究区域，通过经验评估了秸秆露天焚烧禁止计划（SOBP）对改善空气质量的贡献。构造并为RMS模型引入了停滞指标。结果表明，吉林省在2018年的PHS中采用了SOBP，有效减轻了空气污染。在以下两种情况下，还评估了该计划对改善空气质量的贡献：如果在2015年PHS，2016年PHS和2017年PHS期间实施了SOBP，那么这些年的PM2.5累积浓度将下降23％，与实际值相比，分别为15％和22％；如果在2018年的PHS中未实施SOBP，则PM2.5的累积浓度将比实际值增加10％-14％。研究结果可为决策者提供参考，以评估SOBP的环境绩效，并为建立科学的环境法规以促进清洁农业生产和可持续发展提供指导。与实际值相比，这些年的PM2.5累积浓度将分别下降23％，15％和22％；如果在2018年的PHS中未实施SOBP，则PM2.5的累积浓度将比实际值增加10％-14％。研究结果可为决策者提供参考，以评估SOBP的环境绩效，并为建立科学的环境法规以促进清洁农业生产和可持续发展提供指导。与实际值相比，这些年来的PM2.5累积浓度将分别下降23％，15％和22％；如果在2018年的PHS中未实施SOBP，则PM2.5的累积浓度将比实际值增加10％-14％。研究结果可为决策者提供参考，以评估SOBP的环境绩效，并为建立科学的环境法规以促进清洁农业生产和可持续发展提供指导。