The hydrological responses of geographically isolated wetlands to climate change is insufficiently considered and qualified, with weak but critical hydrologic connectivity to surrounding uplands. This study simulated the essential physical hydrological processes under climate change by coupling a distributed process-based model with an assemblage of 20 general circulation models under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios 8.5 and 4.5 for 1950–2099. A susceptibility rate was proposed to assess wetland sustainability under climate change. Different model capabilities in hydro-climatic interactions of geographically isolated wetlands were quantified by developing a process-based and an empirical model. The results show that the water table will have declined 68 cm by 2100, with decreasing water availability (−289 cm). Based on the sustainability assessment, the wetland will dry with an increasing risk from baseline of 63%–99% in 2100. The risk of wetland loss will increase from baseline of 37%–93% in 2100. The high risk of unsustainable wetlands in the study area indicates high susceptibility and vulnerability of the wetland hydrological system to climate change. The study has wide implications in conserving the entire hydrological continuum of geographically isolated wetlands and surrounded uplands. It also provides information to make adaptative strategies for wetlands under threat from climate change.

地理上孤立的湿地对气候变化的水文响应没有得到充分考虑和限定，与周围高地的水文联系薄弱但至关重要。这项研究通过将基于分布式过程的模型与1950-2099年代表浓度路径情景8.5和4.5下的20种一般环流模型组合起来，模拟了气候变化下的基本物理水文过程。提出了一个敏感率来评估气候变化下的湿地可持续性。通过开发基于过程和经验的模型，可以量化地理隔离的湿地在水-气候相互作用中的不同模型能力。结果表明，到2100年，地下水位将下降68厘米，而可用水量却减少（-289厘米）。根据可持续性评估，到2100年，湿地的干旱风险将从基线的63％–99％增加。到2100年，湿地损失的风险将从基线37％–93％的风险增加。研究区域表明湿地水文系统对气候变化的高度敏感性和脆弱性。该研究对保护地理上孤立的湿地和周围高地的整个水文连续性具有广泛的意义。它还提供信息，以制定应对气候变化威胁的湿地的适应策略。研究区域内不可持续的湿地的高风险表明湿地水文系统对气候变化的高度敏感性和脆弱性。该研究对保护地理上孤立的湿地和周围高地的整个水文连续性具有广泛的意义。它还提供信息，以制定应对气候变化威胁的湿地的适应策略。研究区域内不可持续的湿地的高风险表明湿地水文系统对气候变化的高度敏感性和脆弱性。该研究对保护地理上孤立的湿地和周围高地的整个水文连续性具有广泛的意义。它还提供信息，以制定应对气候变化威胁的湿地的适应策略。