Not a big deal after all Do volcanic eruptions affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability? Models indicate that sulfate aerosols resulting from large eruptions can initiate an El Niño–like response in the tropical Pacific, but observations have not shown evidence of such behavior. Dee et al. present an oxygen-isotope time series of fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to investigate ENSO's response to large volcanic eruptions during the past millennium. They found a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but not one that was statistically significant. These results suggest that large volcanic events have not triggered a detectable response in ENSO over the past thousand years and that their impact is small relative to the degree of natural variability. Science, this issue p. 1477 Large volcanic eruptions do not cause El Niño events. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shapes global climate patterns yet its sensitivity to external climate forcing remains uncertain. Modeling studies suggest that ENSO is sensitive to sulfate aerosol forcing associated with explosive volcanism but observational support for this effect remains ambiguous. Here, we used absolutely dated fossil corals from the central tropical Pacific to gauge ENSO’s response to large volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a weak tendency for an El Niño–like response in the year after an eruption, but this response is not statistically significant, nor does it appear after the outsized 1257 Samalas eruption. Our results suggest that those models showing a strong ENSO response to volcanic forcing may overestimate the size of the forced response relative to natural ENSO variability.

中文翻译：

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在过去的千年里没有一致的 ENSO 对火山强迫的反应

毕竟没什么大不了的 火山爆发会影响厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 的变化吗？模型表明，大规模喷发产生的硫酸盐气溶胶可以在热带太平洋引发类似厄尔尼诺现象的反应，但观察结果并未显示这种行为的证据。迪等人。展示来自热带太平洋中部的化石珊瑚的氧同位素时间序列，以研究 ENSO 对过去千年中大型火山爆发的反应。他们发现在火山喷发后的一年内，类似厄尔尼诺现象的反应的趋势较弱，但没有统计学意义。这些结果表明，在过去的一千年里，大型火山事件并未在 ENSO 中触发可检测到的响应，并且相对于自然变率的程度，它们的影响很小。科学，这个问题 p。1477 大型火山喷发不会导致厄尔尼诺现象。厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 (ENSO) 塑造了全球气候模式，但其对外部气候强迫的敏感性仍不确定。建模研究表明，ENSO 对与爆炸性火山作用相关的硫酸盐气溶胶强迫敏感，但对这种效应的观测支持仍然不明确。在这里，我们使用来自热带太平洋中部的绝对过时的化石珊瑚来衡量 ENSO 对上一千年大型火山爆发的反应。叠加历元分析显示，在火山喷发后的一年内，类似厄尔尼诺现象的响应趋势较弱，但这种响应在统计上并不显着，也没有出现在 1257 年 Samalas 特大喷发之后。