Spatial-temporal assessment of agricultural virtual water and uncertainty analysis: The case of Kazakhstan (2000-2016).,Science of the Total Environment

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Spatial-temporal assessment of agricultural virtual water and uncertainty analysis: The case of Kazakhstan (2000-2016).
Science of the Total Environment ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138155
Y K Ding ₁ , Y P Li ₂ , Y R Liu ₁

Affiliation

In this study, a fuzzy-vertex-based virtual-water analysis method (FVAM) is developed for assessing the virtual water content (VWC) of main agricultural products, imports, and exports at a national scale. FVAM has advantages in quantifying state-level VWC with a bottom-up approach and reflecting uncertain parameters based on vertex analysis technique. FVAM is applied to a real case of Kazakhstan in Central Asia. Results reveal that (i) the VWC of Kazakhstan's agricultural products is between 55.61 and 83.98 billion m3/yr in 2000-2016, where wheat is the largest water consumer and the Kostanay state has the largest VWC; (ii) Kazakhstan is a net exporter of virtual water, most of which flows to neighboring countries such as Russia and Azerbaijan; (iii) uncertainties in crop coefficient (Kc), feed water requirement (FWR), drinking water requirement (DWR) and service water requirement (SWR) can affect the VWC assessment; (iv) the massive export of water-intensive products makes the water resources more severe in Kazakhstan, which further squeezes the local ecological water use. Therefore, reducing the export of virtual water should be the focus of future agricultural policies. The findings are useful for decision makers to optimize Kazakhstan's agricultural structure, mitigate the national water scarcity, and facilitate the regional sustainable development.

中文翻译：

农业虚拟水的时空评估和不确定性分析：哈萨克斯坦（2000-2016年）。

在这项研究中，开发了一种基于模糊顶点的虚拟水分析方法（FVAM），用于评估全国范围内主要农产品，进出口的虚拟水含量（VWC）。FVAM具有以下优点：采用自下而上的方法量化状态级VWC，并基于顶点分析技术反映不确定的参数。FVAM适用于中亚哈萨克斯坦的真实案例。结果表明：（i）哈萨克斯坦2000-2016年农产品的VWC在55.61至839.8亿立方米/年之间，其中小麦是最大的用水量，而Kostanay州的VWC最大。ii哈萨克斯坦是虚拟水的净出口国，其中大部分流向俄罗斯和阿塞拜疆等邻国；（iii）作物系数（Kc），给水需求（FWR）的不确定性，饮用水需求（DWR）和生活用水需求（SWR）会影响VWC评估；（iv）高耗水量产品的大量出口使哈萨克斯坦的水资源更加紧张，这进一步压缩了当地的生态用水。因此，减少虚拟水的出口应成为未来农业政策的重点。这些发现对于决策者优化哈萨克斯坦的农业结构，减轻国家水资源短缺以及促进区域可持续发展非常有用。减少虚拟水的出口应成为未来农业政策的重点。这些发现对于决策者优化哈萨克斯坦的农业结构，减轻国家水资源短缺以及促进区域可持续发展非常有用。减少虚拟水的出口应成为未来农业政策的重点。这些发现对于决策者优化哈萨克斯坦的农业结构，减轻国家水资源短缺以及促进区域可持续发展非常有用。

更新日期：2020-03-27

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