Forests absorb a large fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emission, but their ability to continue to act as a sink under climate change depends in part on plant species undergoing rapid adaptation. Yet models of forest response to climate change currently ignore local adaptation as a response mechanism. Thus, considering the evolution of intraspecific trait variation is necessary for reliable, long-term species and climate projections. Here, we combine ecophysiology and predictive climate modeling with analyses of genomic variation to determine whether sugar and starch storage, energy reserves for trees under extreme conditions, have the heritable variation and genetic diversity necessary to evolve in response to climate change within populations of black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa). Despite current patterns of local adaptation and extensive range-wide heritable variation in storage, we demonstrate that adaptive evolution in response to climate change will be limited by a lack of heritable variation within northern populations and by a need for extreme genetic changes in southern populations. Our method can help design more targeted species management interventions and highlights the power of using genomic tools in ecological prediction to scale from molecular to regional processes to determine the ability of a species to respond to future climates.

中文翻译：

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生态预测的新视角揭示了温带树种的气候适应极限。

森林吸收了很大一部分人为二氧化碳排放量，但它们在气候变化下继续充当汇的能力部分取决于正在迅速适应的植物物种。然而，森林对气候变化的响应模型目前忽略了将本地适应作为响应机制。因此，考虑种内性状变异的演变对于可靠的长期物种和气候预测是必要的。在这里，我们将生态生理学和预测性气候模型与基因组变异分析相结合，以确定糖和淀粉的储存，极端条件下树木的能量储备，是否具有遗传变异和遗传多样性，以适应黑杨木种群中的气候变化。 （Populus trichocarpa）。尽管当前存在局部适应的模式，并且在存储范围内存在广泛的遗传变异，但我们证明，应对气候变化的适应性进化将受到北方种群内缺乏遗传变异和南方种群极度遗传变化的限制。我们的方法可帮助设计更具针对性的物种管理干预措施，并突出显示在生态预测中使用基因组工具从分子过程扩展到区域过程以确定物种对未来气候的能力的能力。