Abstract This study analyses energy transition pathways for the case of Bangladesh. The LUT Energy System Transition model, a high temporal - spatial resolution linear optimisation tool, is used to model an energy system transition from 2015 to 2050 for the case of Bangladesh. Four scenarios aimed at analysing different energy policies were created in order to replicate the present and alternative renewable energy based policies, with and without greenhouse gas emissions costs. The results show that emissions costs accelerate the transition towards a fully renewable energy system, however, removing these costs does not significantly affect the energy system, as renewables would still contribute 94% of the electricity generation by 2050. The Current Policy Scenario increases electricity and greenhouse gas emissions costs significantly especially, starting in 2025. The results indicate that countries like Bangladesh are prone to serious and complicated national risks that lead to several vulnerabilities like high electricity costs, increase in greenhouse gas emissions, energy insecurity and poor political trust, if present energy policies are pursued. However, focusing on indigenous renewable resources could help mitigate this vulnerability and bring about socioeconomic benefits.

中文翻译：

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采用可再生能源的当前能源政策和可能的转型情景：孟加拉国的案例研究

摘要 本研究以孟加拉国为例分析了能源转型路径。LUT 能源系统转型模型是一种高时空分辨率线性优化工具，用于对孟加拉国 2015 年至 2050 年的能源系统转型进行建模。创建了四种旨在分析不同能源政策的情景，以复制基于现有和替代性可再生能源的政策，有或没有温室气体排放成本。结果表明，排放成本加速了向完全可再生能源系统的过渡，然而，消除这些成本不会显着影响能源系统，因为到 2050 年，可再生能源仍将贡献 94% 的发电量。当前的政策情景增加了电力和温室气体排放成本显着，尤其是，从 2025 年开始。结果表明，如果奉行目前的能源政策，像孟加拉国这样的国家很容易出现严重而复杂的国家风险，这些风险会导致一些脆弱性，例如高电费、温室气体排放增加、能源不安全和政治信任差。然而，关注本土可再生资源有助于减轻这种脆弱性并带来社会经济效益。