Dengue endemicity varies but comparative, multi-country data are extremely limited. An improved understanding is needed to prioritize prevention, including vaccination, which is currently recommended only under specific epidemiological conditions. We used serological study data from 46 geographical sites in 13 countries to estimate dengue force of infection (FOI, the proportion of children seroconverting per year) under assumptions of either age-constant or age-varying FOI, and the age at which 50% and 80% of children had been infected. After exclusions, 13,661 subjects were included. Estimated constant FOI varied widely, from 1.7% (Singapore) to 24.1% (the Philippines). In the site-level analysis 44 sites (96%) reached 50% seroconversion, and 35 sites (75%) reached 80% seroconversion, by age 18, with significant heterogeneity. These findings confirm that children living in dengue-endemic countries receive intense early dengue exposure, increasing risk of secondary infection, and imply serosurveys at fine spatial resolutions are needed to inform vaccination campaigns.

中文翻译：

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13 个流行国家的登革热流行、感染力和传播强度变化

登革热的流行程度各不相同，但比较的多国数据极为有限。需要更好地理解优先预防，包括疫苗接种，目前仅在特定流行病学条件下推荐。我们使用来自 13 个国家的 46 个地理位置的血清学研究数据来估计登革热感染力（FOI，即每年发生血清转化的儿童的比例），假设 FOI 年龄不变或年龄变化，以及 50% 和80%的儿童被感染。排除后，包括 13,661 名受试者。估计的常数 FOI 变化很大，从 1.7%（新加坡）到 24.1%（菲律宾）。在站点级别分析中，到 18 岁时，44 个站点（96%）的血清转化率达到 50%，35 个站点（75%）的血清转化率达到 80%，具有显着的异质性。