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Optimal oil stockpiling, peak oil, and general equilibrium: case study of South Asia (oil importers) and Middle East (oil supplier).
Environmental Science and Pollution Research Pub Date : 2020-03-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-08419-7
Muhammad Khalid Anser 1 , Qaiser Abbas 2 , Imran Sharif Chaudhry 3 , Arman Khan 4
Affiliation  

Optimal stockpiling is the best possible strategy to overcome the problem of peak oil periods of oil producer economies. We measured the properties of strategic petroleum oil reserve and general equilibrium and its peak oil effects. Measured the optimized scales of SPR through using oil price model, global oil market, and depletion effects of oil production classification. The peak oil period occurs from the interection between the geological era, proficiency in a practical skill, economy of consumers, and geopolitics, and the quality of deciding of demand and supply in which we have done a general dynamic balance model. Results reveal that peak oil time periods may lead towards diverse oil prices time profiles, economic development, and commodity flows. Interestingly, the macroeconomic effects of peak oil and the trajectories in objective function of two options maximize the households’ welfare and oil revenues and its effect on growth trajectories of oil-consuming countries. If an oil supply disruption happens, the rate of oil acquisition will be considerably decreased, though it may not be a good strategy to interrupt the activities of oil reserve with the aim of minimizing the overall costs.



中文翻译:

最佳石油储备,峰值石油和总体平衡:南亚(石油进口国)和中东(石油供应国)的案例研究。

最佳库存是克服石油生产国经济高峰期石油的最佳策略。我们测量了战略石油储备和一般均衡的性质及其峰值石油效应。通过使用石油价格模型,全球石油市场以及石油生产分类的枯竭效应来衡量SPR的最佳规模。石油高峰期的发生是由于地质时代,熟练的实践技能,消费者的经济和地缘政治之间的相互影响,以及我们已经建立了一般动态平衡模型的供求决定质量。结果表明,石油高峰时期可能导致不同的石油价格时间曲线,经济发展和商品流动。有趣的是 峰值石油的宏观经济效应和两种选择的目标函数轨迹将最大化家庭的福利和石油收入,并最大化其对石油消费国增长轨迹的影响。如果发生石油供应中断,则以最大程度降低总成本为目的,中断石油储备活动可能不是一个好的策略,尽管石油供应的中断率将大大降低。

更新日期:2020-03-24
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