The common lionfish Pterois miles has rapidly spread across the eastern Mediterranean Sea. We compiled occurrence data from both native and invaded range under the framework of Species Distribution Modelling (SDM). Through a construction of an environmental suitability model and estimation of spread rates we investigated the lionfish climate niche in both its native and invaded domains, this latter represented by the Mediterranean region. Model projections allowed to identify suitable areas for lionfish establishment in the Mediterranean. Spread analysis suggested that a further geographical expansion in this basin could be completed within the next years. Our results did not provide evidence for niche expansion but highlighted a high degree of niche unfilling thus prospecting a likely spread of Mediterranean lionfish invasion beyond the predictions of current SDMs. These findings provide novel inputs to forecast the future geographical evolution of the lionfish in the Mediterranean Sea and asses the related risk of invasion.

中文翻译：

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栖息地的适宜性，生态位的消失和翼龙在地中海中的潜在传播。

常见的l鱼Pterois英里已在整个地中海东部迅速蔓延。在“物种分布模型”（SDM）的框架下，我们从本地和入侵范围收集了发生数据。通过构建环境适应性模型并估算传播速度，我们研究了native鱼在其本国和入侵地区的气​​候生态位，后者以地中海地区为代表。通过模型预测，可以确定适合在地中海建立suitable鱼的区域。价差分析表明，该流域的进一步地域扩张可在未来几年内完成。我们的研究结果没有为利基市场的扩张提供证据，但强调了利基市场的高度填充，因此，地中海l鱼入侵的可能性可能会超出当前SDM的预测范围。这些发现为预测the鱼在地中海的未来地理演变和评估相关的入侵风险提供了新颖的依据。