Environmental temperatures influence ectotherms’ physiology and capacity to perform activities necessary for survival and reproduction. Time available to perform those activities is determined by thermal tolerances and environmental temperatures. Estimates of activity time might enhance our ability to predict suitable areas for species’ persistence in face of climate warming, compared to the exclusive use of environmental temperatures, without considering thermal tolerances. We compare the ability of environmental temperatures and estimates of activity time to predict the geographic distribution of a tropical lizard, Tropidurus torquatus. We compared 105 estimates of activity time, resulting from the combination of four methodological decisions: 1) how to estimate daily environmental temperature variation (modeling a sinusoid wave ranging from monthly minimum to maximum temperature, extrapolating from operative temperatures measured in field or using biophysical projections of microclimate)? 2) In which temperature range are animals considered active? 3) Should these ranges be determined from body temperatures obtained in laboratory or in field? And 4) should thermoregulation simulations be included in estimations? We show that models using estimates of activity time made with the sinusoid and biophysical methods had higher predictive accuracy than those using environmental temperatures alone. Estimates made using the central 90% of temperatures measured in a thermal gradient as the temperature range for activity also ranked higher than environmental temperatures. Thermoregulation simulations did not improve model accuracy. Precipitation ranked higher than thermally related predictors. Activity time adds important information to distribution modeling and should be considered as a predictor in studies of the distribution of ectotherms. The distribution of T. torquatus is restricted by precipitation and by the effect of lower temperatures on their time of activity and climate warming could lead to range expansion. We provide an R package ‘Mapinguari’ with tools to generate spatial predictors based on the processes described herein.

中文翻译：

---

活动时间比纯环境温度更好地预测了热带蜥蜴的分布

环境温度会影响等温线的生理和能力，以进行生存和繁殖所必需的活动。进行这些活动的时间取决于热公差和环境温度。与仅使用环境温度而不考虑热容差相比，活动时间的估计可能会增强我们预测适合气候变化的物种持久生存区域的能力。我们比较环境温度的能力和活动时间的估计，以预测热带蜥蜴Tropidurus torquatus的地理分布。我们比较了四种方法学决策相结合得出的105项活动时间估算：1）如何估算每日环境温度变化（模拟从每月最低温度到最高温度的正弦波，根据现场测量的工作温度或使用生物物理投影推断）小气候）？2）动物在哪个温度范围内活动？3）是否应根据实验室或现场获得的体温确定这些范围？4）估算中是否应包括温度调节模拟？我们显示，使用正弦波和生物物理方法估算活动时间的模型比仅使用环境温度的模型具有更高的预测准确性。使用活动温度范围内的中心90％温度（以温度梯度测得）进行的估算也高于环境温度。温度调节模拟不能提高模型的准确性。降水的排名高于热相关的预测因子。活动时间为分布建模增加了重要信息，在研究等温线分布时应将其视为预测因素。的分布龟甲受到降水的限制，并且温度降低了它们的活动时间，气候变暖可能会导致范围扩大。我们为R包“ Mapinguari”提供了基于此处所述过程生成空间预测变量的工具。