Summer monsoon (June-September) precipitation is crucial for agricultural activities in India. Extremes during the monsoon season can have deleterious effects on water availability and agriculture in the region. Here, we show that hot and dry extremes during the summer monsoon season significantly impact food production in India and find that they tend to occur during El Niño years during the observed record of 1951–2018. We then use an ensemble of climate simulations for the historic (1971–2000) and future (2006–2100) that capture this coupling between El Niño and the Indian monsoon to show that the frequency of concurrent hot and dry extremes increases by a factor of 1.5 under continued greenhouse warming during the 21st century. Despite projections of summer monsoon intensification on the order of ~10%, the rise in surface air temperatures as well as increase in rainfall variability contributes to more severe hot and dry monsoon extremes over India, thereby posing a substantial challenge to future food security in India.

夏季季风（6月至9月）的降水对于印度的农业活动至关重要。季风季节的极端天气可能对该地区的水供应和农业产生有害影响。在这里，我们表明夏季季风季节的高温和干燥极端对印度的粮食生产产生了重大影响，并且发现它们往往发生在1951–2018年的观测记录中的厄尔尼诺现象期间。然后，我们对历史（1971–2000年）和未来（2006–2100年）使用一组气候模拟，这些模拟捕获了厄尔尼诺和印度季风之间的这种耦合关系，从而表明同时出现的高温和干燥极端的频率增加了1.5在21世纪持续的温室效应下。尽管预计夏季季风会加剧约10％，