Key message Forest owners who maximize profitability with a low discount rate or whose management goals are related to conservation and recreation, rarely sell timber. These owners make it difficult to achieve the high harvesting targets of the growing bioeconomy sector of Finland. To increase timber supply, these landowners should be informed about alternative silvicultural methods. Context The round wood harvests from Finnish forests are increasing and approaching to the level of maximum sustainable cut. Cutting budget calculations assume that forests are harvested in an optimal way for national timber supply. The calculations ignore the variability of landowners’ forest management preferences. Aims This study analyzed the effect of variation in the management objectives and silvicultural preferences of forest landowners on the forecasted timber supply from Finnish forests. Methods Forest owners were divided into savers (net present value maximized with a 1% discount rate), average owners (3% discount rate), and investors (5% discount rate). The owners of each group were further divided into three groups: those who allow only continuous cover management (12%), owners who use only rotation forest management (10%), and indifferent landowners who may use both silvicultural systems (78%). Scenarios were composed of management prescriptions that were optimized separately for the different groups of forest landowners. Results Compared to the even-flow timber drain scenario for rotation forest management (calculated without acknowledging the varying preferences of landowners), the scenario where the owners’ preferences varied decreased harvested volume by 15–19% during a 100-year calculation period. The main reason for the difference was the saver type of landowners who rarely sell timber. Conclusion It was concluded that variation of the preferences of forest landowners may make it challenging to meet the increasing harvesting targets of the growing bioeconomy of Finland.

中文翻译：

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林地所有者管理偏好的变化减少了芬兰森林的木材供应

关键信息 以低折扣率实现利润最大化或其管理目标与保护和娱乐相关的森林所有者很少出售木材。这些所有者使得芬兰日益增长的生物经济部门难以实现高收成目标。为了增加木材供应，这些土地所有者应该了解替代造林方法。背景 芬兰森林的圆木采伐量正在增加并接近最大可持续砍伐的水平。削减预算计算假设森林是以最佳方式采伐以供应国家木材。计算忽略了土地所有者森林管理偏好的可变性。目的 本研究分析了林地所有者的管理目标和造林偏好的变化对芬兰森林预测木材供应的影响。方法 森林所有者分为储蓄者（以 1% 的贴现率最大化净现值）、平均所有者（3% 的贴现率）和投资者（5% 的贴现率）。每个组的所有者进一步分为三组：仅允许连续覆盖管理的所有者 (12%)、仅使用轮作森林管理的所有者 (10%) 以及可能同时使用两种造林系统的中性土地所有者 (78%)。情景由针对不同林地所有者群体分别优化的管理方案组成。结果 与轮作森林管理的均流木材排水情景（在不承认土地所有者不同偏好的情况下计算）相比，所有者偏好不同的情景在 100 年计算期间减少了 15-19% 的采伐量。造成这种差异的主要原因是很少出售木材的储蓄型土地所有者。结论 结论是，林地所有者偏好的变化可能使满足芬兰不断增长的生物经济日益增长的采伐目标变得具有挑战性。