当前位置: X-MOL 学术J. R. Stat. Soc. A › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
On quantifying expert opinion about multinomial models that contain covariates
The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society) ( IF 1.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-08 , DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12546
Fadlalla G. Elfadaly 1, 2 , Paul H. Garthwaite 1
Affiliation  

The paper addresses the task of forming a prior distribution to represent expert opinion about a multinomial model that contains covariates. The task has not previously been addressed. We suppose that the sampling model is a multinomial logistic regression and represent expert opinion about the regression coefficients by a multivariate normal distribution. This logistic–normal model gives a flexible prior distribution that can capture a broad variety of expert opinion. The challenge is to find meaningful assessment tasks that an expert can perform and which should yield appropriate information to determine the values of parameters in the prior distribution, and to develop theory for determining the parameter values from the assessments. A method is proposed that meets this challenge. The method is implemented in interactive easy‐to‐use software that is freely available. It provides a graphical interface that the expert uses to assess quartiles of sets of proportions and the method determines a mean vector and a positive definite covariance matrix to represent the expert's opinions. The assessment tasks chosen yield parameter values that satisfy the usual laws of probability without the expert being aware of the constraints that this imposes. Special attention is given to feedback that encourages the expert to consider his or her opinions from a different perspective. The method is illustrated in an example that shows its viability and usefulness.

中文翻译:

关于量化关于包含协变量的多项式模型的专家意见

本文着眼于形成先验分布以代表专家意见的多项式模型,该模型包含协变量。该任务以前尚未解决。我们假设采样模型是多项式逻辑回归,并通过多元正态分布表示有关回归系数的专家意见。这种逻辑正态模型可提供灵活的先验分布,可以收集各种专家意见。面临的挑战是找到专家可以执行的有意义的评估任务,这些任务应提供适当的信息来确定先验分布中的参数值,并发展用于从评估中确定参数值的理论。提出了一种应对这一挑战的方法。该方法在免费的交互式易用软件中实现。它提供了一个图形界面,专家可以使用它来评估比例集的四分位数,并且该方法可以确定均值向量和正定协方差矩阵来表示专家的意见。选择的评估任务产生的参数值满足通常的概率定律,而专家却不知道这会带来什么约束。特别注意反馈,鼓励专家从不同的角度考虑他或她的意见。在显示其可行性和实用性的示例中说明了该方法。它提供了一个图形界面,专家可以使用它来评估比例集的四分位数,并且该方法可以确定均值向量和正定协方差矩阵来表示专家的意见。选择的评估任务产生的参数值满足通常的概率定律,而专家却不知道这会带来什么约束。特别注意反馈,鼓励专家从不同的角度考虑他或她的意见。在显示其可行性和实用性的示例中说明了该方法。它提供了一个图形界面,专家可以使用它来评估比例集的四分位数,并且该方法可以确定均值向量和正定协方差矩阵来表示专家的意见。选择的评估任务会产生满足通常概率定律的参数值,而专家不会意识到这会施加约束。特别注意反馈,鼓励专家从不同的角度考虑他或她的意见。在显示其可行性和实用性的示例中说明了该方法。特别注意反馈,鼓励专家从不同的角度考虑他或她的意见。在显示其可行性和实用性的示例中说明了该方法。特别注意反馈,鼓励专家从不同的角度考虑他或她的意见。在显示其可行性和实用性的示例中说明了该方法。
更新日期:2020-01-08
down
wechat
bug