Aim To (a) assess the environmental suitability for rainforest tree species of Moraceae and Urticaceae across Amazonia during the Mid‐Late Holocene and (b) determine the extent to which their distributions increased in response to long‐term climate change over this period. Location Amazonia. Taxon Tree species of Moraceae and Urticaceae. Methods We used MaxEnt and inverse distance weighting interpolation to produce environmental suitability and relative abundance models at 0.5‐degree resolution for tree species of Moraceae and Urticaceae, based on natural history collections and a large plot dataset. To test the response of the Amazon rainforest to long‐term climate change, we quantified the increase in environmental suitability and modelled species richness for both families since the Mid‐Holocene (past 6,000 years). To test the correlation between the relative abundance of these species in modern vegetation versus modern pollen assemblages, we analysed the surface pollen spectra from 46 previously published paleoecological sites. Results We found that the mean environmental suitability in Amazonia for species of Moraceae and Urticaceae showed a slight increase (6.5%) over the past 6,000 years, although southern ecotonal Amazonia and the Guiana Shield showed much higher increases (up to 68%). The accompanied modelled mean species richness increased by as much as 120% throughout Amazonia. The mean relative abundance of Moraceae and Urticaceae correlated significantly with the modern pollen assemblages for these families. Main Conclusions Increasing precipitation between the Mid‐ and Late Holocene expanded suitable environmental conditions for Amazonian humid rainforest tree species of Moraceae and Urticaceae, leading to rainforest expansion in ecotonal areas of Amazonia, consistent with previously published fossil pollen data.

中文翻译：

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模拟中晚期全新世响应长期气候变化的亚马逊树种分布

目的 (a) 评估全新世中晚期亚马逊地区桑科和荨麻科热带雨林树种的环境适宜性，以及 (b) 确定其分布在此期间响应长期气候变化而增加的程度。地点亚马逊。桑科和荨麻科的分类群树种。方法我们使用 MaxEnt 和反距离加权插值法，基于自然历史收集和大型地块数据集，以 0.5 度分辨率为桑科和荨麻科的树种生成环境适宜性和相对丰度模型。为了测试亚马逊雨林对长期气候变化的响应，我们量化了自全新世中期（过去 6000 年）以来两个科的环境适宜性和模拟物种丰富度的增加。为了测试这些物种在现代植被与现代花粉组合中的相对丰度之间的相关性，我们分析了 46 个先前公布的古生态遗址的表面花粉光谱。结果 我们发现，亚马逊地区桑科和荨麻科物种的平均环境适宜性在过去 6,000 年中略有增加 (6.5%)，尽管南部生态系统亚马逊河和圭亚那地盾显示出更高的增长（高达 68%）。伴随的模拟平均物种丰富度在整个亚马逊河流域增加了 120%。桑科和荨麻科的平均相对丰度与这些科的现代花粉组合显着相关。