We analyse the impact of the Russian food embargo on European and Russian trade patterns using a triple-difference estimation strategy. We quantify the effects on the value of trade, the trade price of products covered by the ban, and the new trade flows generated by the ban. Our results point to an average e 125 million loss in monthly EU28 exports to Russia due to the ban (with Lithuania, Poland, and Germany bearing the largest losses). However, only 45% of the drop in EU28 exports of banned products to Russia would be due to the ban. In addition, EU products banned from the Russian market were sold elsewhere at lower prices. The reorientation of EU exports to other markets translated into selling larger amounts to old trade partners, as well as in accessing new markets. EU member states were unevenly affected by the ban. Germany and Poland compensated their large losses on the Russian market by a strong increase in exports to other trade partners (mostly intra-EU), at the expense of other EU acountries, such as France and Denmark.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯食品禁运和贸易损失

我们使用三重差异估计策略分析俄罗斯食品禁运对欧洲和俄罗斯贸易模式的影响。我们量化了对贸易价值、禁令所涵盖产品的贸易价格以及禁令产生的新贸易流量的影响。我们的结果表明，由于禁令，EU28 对俄罗斯的每月出口平均损失 1.25 亿欧元（其中立陶宛、波兰和德国损失最大）。然而，欧盟 28 国对俄罗斯的禁用产品出口下降的 45% 是由于禁令。此外，被禁止进入俄罗斯市场的欧盟产品在其他地方以较低的价格出售。欧盟对其他市场出口的重新定位转化为向旧贸易伙伴销售更多产品，以及进入新市场。欧盟成员国受到禁令的影响不均衡。