This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk.

本文在传统的二元疏散/停留决策中增加了部分家庭疏散。根据马修飓风过后佛罗里达州杰克逊维尔市居民的调查数据，开发了多项式（MNL）模型和随机参数MNL模型，以确定影响因素以及某些变量的影响是否比以前的文献所建议的更为细微。随机参数模型优于固定参数模型。该模型中的重要变量包括对伤害的关注，对飓风影响地点的确定性，年龄，婚姻状况，家庭凝聚力以及在流动或独立屋中的生活。更大的伤害隐患导致无人疏散家庭的可能性较低，而部分疏散的可能性较大，但完全疏散家庭的可能性较低。同样，关于飓风影响的更大确定性增加了部分家庭疏散的可能性，但降低了完全疏散的可能性。受访者年龄有不同的影响；对于85.54％的受访者来说，年龄的增长增加了家庭居住的可能性。已婚家庭住在一起或撤离的可能性更高。同样，家庭凝聚力与家庭团结在一起有关。住在移动房屋中，减少了所有家庭留下或撤离的可能性，并增加了部分家庭疏散的可能性。住在单户独立屋中与所有家庭留下或撤离的可能性较低以及部分家庭疏散的可能性较高有关。