Shortfall aversion reflects the higher utility loss of spending cuts from a reference than the utility gain from similar spending increases. Inspired by Prospect Theory's loss aversion and the peak‐end rule, this paper posits a model of utility from spending scaled by past peak spending. In contrast to traditional models, which call for spending rates proportional to wealth, the optimal policy in this model implies a constant spending rate equal to the historical peak when wealth is relatively large. The spending rate increases when wealth reaches a model‐determined multiple of peak spending. In 1926–2015, shortfall‐averse spending is smooth and typically increasing.

中文翻译：

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短缺厌恶

短缺厌恶反映出参考削减的公用事业损失比类似支出增加的公用事业收益要高。受预期理论的损失规避和高峰期规则的启发，本文提出了一种由过去高峰支出规模决定的支出效用模型。与传统模型要求支出率与财富成正比的传统模型相反，此模型中的最优政策意味着当财富相对较大时，恒定支出率等于历史峰值。当财富达到峰值支出的模型确定倍数时，支出率将增加。在1926年至2015年间，对逆差的支出是平稳的，并且通常会增加。