Abstract This study investigates the effect of water temperature on the development rate of eggs and larvae, the duration of the endogenous feeding period and its consequences for recruitment of smelt (Osmerus eperlanus ) in Dutch lakes IJsselmeer and Markermeer. This study measured temperature‐dependent egg and larval development rates as well as mortality rates from fertilization till the moment of absorption of the yolk‐sac and from yolk‐sac depletion onwards in temperature‐controlled indoor experiments. Using multinomial modelling the authors found significant differences in development time of egg development stages under different temperature regimes. Based on historic water temperatures, the model predicted that the larval endogenous feeding period has advanced at a rate of about 2.9 days per decade in a more than 50 year period since 1961, yet there was no change in the duration of the endogenous feeding period. As zooplankton is more responsive to daylight than water temperature cues, a mismatch between the peak of the onset of exogenous feeding of smelt and the peak of zooplankton blooms could lead to high mortality and therefore low recruitment of smelt. Such a mismatch might contribute to a decline in the smelt population in Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer.

中文翻译：

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温度对欧洲鲭鱼卵和幼虫发育率的影响，Osmerus eperlanus，实验和 50 年的后报

摘要 本研究调查了水温对卵和幼虫发育速度的影响、内源性摄食期的持续时间及其对荷兰艾瑟尔湖和马克梅尔湖鰤鱼（Osmerus eperlanus）募集的影响。这项研究测量了温度依赖性卵和幼虫的发育率，以及从受精到卵黄囊吸收的那一刻的死亡率，以及在温控室内实验中卵黄囊耗尽的死亡率。使用多项式建模，作者发现不同温度条件下鸡蛋发育阶段的发育时间存在显着差异。根据历史水温，该模型预测，自 1961 年以来的 50 多年中，幼虫内源摄食期以每十年约 2.9 天的速度提前，然而，内源性喂养期的持续时间没有变化。由于浮游动物对日光的反应比水温线索更敏感，外源性进食的峰值与浮游动物大量繁殖的峰值之间的不匹配可能导致高死亡率和低吸收量。这种不匹配可能会导致艾瑟尔湖和马克米尔湖的鲭鱼种群减少。