Background and Aims Sampling is problematic in perennial tree and vine crops because organ numbers are vast, budgets are low and maturation of fruit is asynchronous within and between individuals. Typically, the precision and the repeatability of sampling are low and methodologies used in the field vary widely within the industry. We define a combined statistical and cost model for fruit maturity sampling that could be applied widely and would enable precision and cost to be pre‐defined. Methods and Results A two‐stage statistical model, incorporating a ‘cost’ element was designed. The model was evaluated using an intensive set of data acquired from Cabernet Sauvignon vines. This was decomposed into between‐ and within‐vine sources of variance for sugar measured as TSS, anthocyanin and phenolic substances. Conclusions Within a management unit, the between‐vine variation may equal or exceed the within‐vine variation. The two‐stage protocol, for unit cost, gave a more precise estimate of TSS than other protocols. On‐site costs were the main element in apportioning vines per plot and bunches per vine. The variance for anthocyanin and phenolic substances was greater than that of TSS and thus precision was lower for these at a given sample size. Significance of the Study A simple, two‐stage sampling protocol resolves uncertainties inherent in existing protocols. It may be applied widely to grapevine and other tree crops.

中文翻译：

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分层建模划分葡萄园果实成熟度的变化以获得最佳采样

背景和目的 多年生乔木和藤本作物的抽样存在问题，因为器官数量庞大、预算低且果实成熟在个体内部和个体之间不同步。通常，采样的精确度和可重复性较低，并且该领域使用的方法在行业内差异很大。我们为水果成熟度抽样定义了一个组合统计和成本模型，该模型可以广泛应用，并且可以预先定义精度和成本。方法和结果设计了一个包含“成本”元素的两阶段统计模型。该模型是使用从赤霞珠葡萄藤中获得的一组密集数据进行评估的。这被分解为葡萄树间和葡萄树内的方差来源，以 TSS、花青素和酚类物质测量的糖分。结论 在管理单位内，葡萄藤间变异可能等于或超过葡萄藤内变异。对于单位成本，两阶段协议对 TSS 的估计比其他协议更准确。现场成本是分配每块地和每株葡萄串的主要因素。花青素和酚类物质的方差大于 TSS 的方差，因此在给定的样本量下，这些物质的精度较低。研究的意义 一个简单的两阶段采样方案解决了现有方案中固有的不确定性。可广泛应用于葡萄和其他树木作物。花青素和酚类物质的方差大于 TSS 的方差，因此在给定的样本量下，这些物质的精度较低。研究的意义 一个简单的两阶段采样方案解决了现有方案中固有的不确定性。可广泛应用于葡萄和其他树木作物。花青素和酚类物质的方差大于 TSS 的方差，因此在给定的样本量下，这些物质的精度较低。研究的意义 一个简单的两阶段采样方案解决了现有方案中固有的不确定性。可广泛应用于葡萄和其他树木作物。