Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed’s water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid‐century, and end‐century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid‐century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end‐century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.

中文翻译：

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使用SWAT模型估算气候变化对上层Neuse流域水平衡的潜在影响

气候变化对全世界许多已经缺水的流域构成了水资源挑战。这样的分水岭是北卡罗来纳州的上Neuse分水岭，它是不断发展的大型研究三角公园地区的水源。这项研究的目的是量化流域水平衡因气候变化而可能发生的变化。为此，我们使用了土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型，在五个，不同比例的总体环流模型的基础上，本世纪中叶和本世纪末期，在不同气候情景下强制使用了该模型。在运行这些方案之前，使用流域内的每日流量记录对SWAT模型进行了校准和验证。研究结果表明，即使在缓解情况下，降水量也会增加7。从基线到本世纪中叶的时间段为7％，而从基线到本世纪末的时间段则为9.8％。同期，蒸散量（ET）将减少5.5％和7.6％，水的产量将分别增加25.1％和33.2％，土壤水将分别增加1.4％和1.9％。也许最重要的是，模型结果显示，在高排放情景下，季节性差异较大，估计ET在夏季末和秋季下降最多达42％，而水产量最多增加157％。计划较潮湿的未来和相应的季节性变化对于减轻气候变化对水资源的影响至关重要。1％和33.2％，土壤水分将分别增加1.4％和1.9％。也许最重要的是，模型结果显示，在高排放情景下，季节性差异较大，估计ET在夏季末和秋季下降最多达42％，而水产量最多增加157％。计划较潮湿的未来和相应的季节性变化对于减轻气候变化对水资源的影响至关重要。1％和33.2％，土壤水分将分别增加1.4％和1.9％。也许最重要的是，模型结果显示，在高排放情景下，季节性差异较大，估计ET在夏季末和秋季下降最多达42％，而水产量最多增加157％。计划较潮湿的未来和相应的季节性变化对于减轻气候变化对水资源的影响至关重要。