AIM: Climate change is expected to influence boreal bird communities significantly, notably through changes in forest habitat (composition and age structure), in the coming decades. How these changes will accumulate and interact with anthropogenic disturbances remains an open question for most species. LOCATION: Northeastern Alberta, Canada. METHODS: We used the LANDIS‐II forest landscape model to project changes in forest landscapes, and associated bird populations (72 passerine species), according to three climatic scenarios (baseline, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three forest harvesting scenarios of differing intensity. RESULTS: Both forest harvesting and climate‐related drivers were projected to have large impacts on bird communities in this region. As a result of climate‐induced increases in fire activity as well as decreased conifer productivity, our simulations projected that an important proportion of Alberta's boreal forests would transition to treeless habitat (i.e. grass‐ or shrub‐dominated vegetation) while many conifer‐dominated stands would likely be replaced by broadleaf tree cover. Consequently, the abundance of bird species associated with open and deciduous habitats were projected to increase. With a strong anthropogenic climate‐forcing scenario (RCP 8.5), sharp declines in abundance of coniferous trees were also projected, particularly in mature and old forest stands, triggering major declines for bird species associated with coniferous and mixedwood forest types. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: As the most comprehensive simulation of climate change and harvesting impacts on avian habitats in the North American boreal region to date, our study stresses the importance of considering key habitat characteristics like forest age structure and composition through forest landscape modelling and identifies 18 bird species particularly sensitive to climate change. Our simulations suggest that a change in forest management practices could play an important role in the conservation of boreal bird species vulnerable to climate change. The intensive forest harvesting simulated accelerated declines in bird abundance compared to a “no harvesting” scenario.

中文翻译：

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加拿大西部北方森林的人为干扰加剧了气候变化对北方鸟类群落的预测影响

目标：预计气候变化将在未来几十年显着影响北方鸟类群落，特别是通过森林栖息地（组成和年龄结构）的变化。对于大多数物种来说，这些变化将如何累积并与人为干扰相互作用仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。地点：加拿大艾伯塔省东北部。方法：我们使用 LANDIS-II 森林景观模型，根据三种气候情景（基线、RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5）和三种不同强度的森林采伐情景预测森林景观和相关鸟类种群（72 种雀类）的变化. 结果：预计森林采伐和气候相关驱动因素都会对该地区的鸟类群落产生重大影响。由于气候引起的火灾活动增加以及针叶树生产力下降，我们的模拟预测，艾伯塔省很大一部分北方森林将转变为无树栖息地（即以草或灌木为主的植被），而许多以针叶树为主的林分可能会被阔叶树覆盖所取代。因此，预计与开放和落叶栖息地相关的鸟类数量将增加。在强烈的人为气候强迫情景 (RCP 8.5) 下，还预计针叶树的丰度将急剧下降，特别是在成熟和古老的林分中，引发与针叶林和混交林类型相关的鸟类物种的大量减少。主要结论： 作为迄今为止对北美北方地区鸟类栖息地的气候变化和收获影响的最全面模拟，我们的研究强调了通过森林景观建模来考虑关键栖息地特征（如森林年龄结构和组成）的重要性，并确定了 18 种对气候变化特别敏感的鸟类。我们的模拟表明，森林管理实践的改变可以在保护易受气候变化影响的北方鸟类方面发挥重要作用。与“不采伐”情景相比，密集的森林采伐模拟了鸟类数量的加速下降。我们的模拟表明，森林管理实践的改变可以在保护易受气候变化影响的北方鸟类方面发挥重要作用。与“不采伐”情景相比，密集的森林采伐模拟了鸟类数量的加速下降。我们的模拟表明，森林管理实践的改变可以在保护易受气候变化影响的北方鸟类方面发挥重要作用。与“不采伐”情景相比，密集的森林采伐模拟了鸟类数量的加速下降。