Aim: We compare the performance of habitat suitability models using climate data only or climate data together with water chemistry, land cover and predation pressure data to model the distribution of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus). From these models, we (a) investigate the relationship between habitat suitability and genetic diversity; (b) project the distribution of grayling under future climate change; and (c) model the effects of habitat mitigation on future distributions. Location: United Kingdom. Methods: Maxent species distribution modelling was implemented using a Simple model (only climate parameters) or a Full model (climate, water chemistry, land use and predation pressure parameters). Areas of high and low habitat suitability were designated. Associations between habitat suitability and genetic diversity for both neutral and adaptive markers were examined. Distribution under minimal and maximal future climate change scenarios was modelled for 2050, incorporating projections of future flow scenarios obtained from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. To examine potential mitigation effects within habitats, models were run with manipulation of orthophosphate, nitrite and copper concentrations. Results: We mapped suitable habitat for grayling in the present and the future. The Full model achieved substantially higher discriminative power than the Simple model. For low suitability habitat, higher levels of inbreeding were observed for adaptive, but not neutral, loci. Future projections predict a significant contraction of highly suitable areas. Under habitat mitigation, modelling suggests that recovery of suitable habitat of up to 10% is possible. Main conclusions: Extending the climate-only model improves estimates of habitat suitability. Significantly higher inbreeding coefficients were found at immune genes, but not neutral markers in low suitability habitat, indicating a possible impact of environmental stress on evolutionary potential. The potential for habitat mitigation to alleviate distributional changes under future climate change is demonstrated, and specific recommendations are made for habitat recovery on a regional basis.

中文翻译：

---

污染控制有助于减轻未来气候变化对英国欧洲鳟鱼的影响

目的：我们比较仅使用气候数据或气候数据与水化学、土地覆盖和捕食压力数据一起使用的栖息地适宜性模型的性能，以模拟欧洲鳟鱼 (Thymallus thymallus) 的分布。从这些模型中，我们 (a) 调查栖息地适宜性与遗传多样性之间的关系；(b) 预测未来气候变化下的茴鱼分布；(c) 模拟栖息地减缓对未来分布的影响。地点：英国。方法：Maxent 物种分布建模使用简单模型（仅气候参数）或完整模型（气候、水化学、土地利用和捕食压力参数）实施。指定了栖息地适宜性高低的区域。检查了中性和适应性标记的栖息地适宜性和遗传多样性之间的关联。对 2050 年最小和最大未来气候变化情景下的分布进行了建模，结合了从生态和水文中心获得的未来流量情景的预测。为了检查栖息地内的潜在缓解效果，通过操纵正磷酸盐、亚硝酸盐和铜浓度运行模型。结果：我们绘制了现在和未来适合鳟鱼的栖息地。Full 模型实现了比 Simple 模型高得多的判别能力。对于低适宜性栖息地，在适应性而非中性位点观察到更高水平的近亲繁殖。未来的预测预测非常适合的地区将显着收缩。在栖息地缓解措施下，建模表明，可以恢复高达 10% 的合适栖息地。主要结论：扩展纯气候模型可提高对栖息地适宜性的估计。在免疫基因中发现了显着更高的近交系数，但在低适宜性栖息地中没有发现中性标记，表明环境压力可能对进化潜力产生影响。展示了在未来气候变化下缓解栖息地分布变化的潜力，并针对区域基础上的栖息地恢复提出了具体建议。表明环境压力对进化潜力的可能影响。展示了在未来气候变化下缓解栖息地分布变化的潜力，并针对区域基础上的栖息地恢复提出了具体建议。表明环境压力对进化潜力的可能影响。展示了在未来气候变化下缓解栖息地分布变化的潜力，并针对区域基础上的栖息地恢复提出了具体建议。