Drivers of amphibian population dynamics and asynchrony at local and regional scales,Journal of Animal Ecology

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Drivers of amphibian population dynamics and asynchrony at local and regional scales
Journal of Animal Ecology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-11 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13208
Hugo Cayuela ₁ , Richard A Griffiths ₂ , Nurul Zakaria ₂ , Jan W Arntzen ₃ , Pauline Priol ₄ , Jean-Paul Léna ₅ , Aurélien Besnard ₆ , Pierre Joly ₅

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Identifying the drivers of population fluctuations in spatially distinct populations remains a significant challenge for ecologists. Whereas regional climatic factors may generate population synchrony (i.e., the Moran effect), local factors including the level of density-dependence may reduce the level of synchrony. Although divergences in the scaling of population synchrony and spatial environmental variation have been observed, the regulatory factors that underlie such mismatches are poorly understood. Few previous studies have investigated how density-dependent processes and population-specific responses to weather variation influence spatial synchrony at both local and regional scales. We addressed this issue in a pond-breeding amphibian, the great crested newt (Triturus cristatus). We used capture-recapture data collected through long-term surveys in five T. cristatus populations in Western Europe. In all populations - and subpopulations within metapopulations - population size, annual survival and recruitment fluctuated over time. Likewise, there was considerable variation in these demographic rates between populations and within metapopulations. These fluctuations and variations appear to be context-dependent and more related to site-specific characteristics than local or regional climatic drivers. We found a low level of demographic synchrony at both local and regional levels. Weather has weak and spatially variable effects on survival, recruitment and population growth rate. In contrast, density-dependence was a common phenomenon (at least for population growth) in almost all populations and subpopulations. Our findings support the idea that the Moran effect is low in species where the population dynamics more closely depends on local factors (e.g. population density and habitat characteristics) than on large-scale environmental fluctuation (e.g. regional climatic variation). Such responses may have far-reaching consequences for the long-term viability of spatially structured populations and their ability to response to large-scale climatic anomalies.

中文翻译：

地方和区域尺度两栖动物种群动态和不同步的驱动因素

确定空间不同种群中种群波动的驱动因素仍然是生态学家面临的重大挑战。区域气候因素可能会产生人口同步性（即莫兰效应），而包括密度依赖性在内的局部因素可能会降低同步性水平。尽管已经观察到种群同步和空间环境变化的尺度差异，但人们对造成这种不匹配的调节因素知之甚少。以前的研究很少调查密度依赖过程和人口对天气变化的特定反应如何影响局部和区域尺度的空间同步。我们在池塘养殖的两栖动物——大凤头蝾螈（Triturus cristatus）中解决了这个问题。我们使用了通过对西欧五个 T. cristatus 种群的长期调查收集的捕获-重新捕获数据。在所有种群中——以及元种群内的亚种群——种群规模、年存活率和招募随时间波动。同样，这些人口统计率在人口之间和元种群内也存在相当大的差异。这些波动和变化似乎与环境有关，并且与特定地点的特征相关，而不是与当地或区域气候驱动因素相关。我们发现地方和区域层面的人口同步性水平较低。天气对生存、招募和人口增长率有微弱和空间可变的影响。相比之下，密度依赖性是几乎所有种群和亚种群的普遍现象（至少对于人口增长而言）。我们的研究结果支持这样一种观点，即在种群动态更密切地取决于当地因素（例如种群密度和栖息地特征）而不是大规模环境波动（例如区域气候变化）的物种中，莫兰效应较低。这种反应可能对空间结构种群的长期生存能力及其对大规模气候异常的反应能力产生深远的影响。

更新日期：2020-04-11

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