Forests and forest industries can contribute to climate change mitigation by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, by storing it in biomass, and by fabricating products that substitute more greenhouse gas emission intensive materials and energy. The objectives of the study are to specify alternative scenarios for the diversification of wood product markets and to determine how an increasingly diversified market structure could impact the net carbon emissions (NCEs) of forestry in Finland. The NCEs of the Finnish forest sector were modelled for the period 2016–2056 by using a forest management simulation and optimization model for the standing forests and soil and separate models for product carbon storage and substitution impacts. The annual harvest was fixed at approximately 70 Mm³, which was close to the level of roundwood removals for industry and energy in 2016. The results show that the substitution benefits for a reference scenario with the 2016 market structure account for 9.6 Mt C (35.2 Mt CO₂ equivalent [CO₂ eq]) in 2056, which could be further increased by 7.1 Mt C (26 Mt CO₂ eq) by altering the market structure. As a key outcome, increasing the use of by‐products for textiles and wood–plastic composites in place of kraft pulp and biofuel implies greater overall substitution credits compared to increasing the level of log harvest for construction.

中文翻译：

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木材行业的结构变化对芬兰净碳排放的影响

森林和林业工业可以通过从大气中隔离碳，将其存储在生物质中以及制造替代温室气体排放密集型材料和能源的产品来为缓解气候变化做出贡献。该研究的目的是为木材产品市场的多样化规定替代方案，并确定日益多样化的市场结构如何影响芬兰林业的净碳排放量（NCE）。通过使用森林经营模拟和优化模型（针对现存森林和土壤）以及产品碳存储和替代影响的单独模型，为2016-2056年期间的芬兰林业部门的NCE建模。年收成固定为约70 Mm ³，接近2016年工业和能源的原木清除量。结果显示，具有2016年市场结构的参考方案的替代效益为9.6 Mt C（35.2 Mt CO ₂当量[CO ₂当量]）到2056年，通过改变市场结构可以进一步提高7.1 Mt C（26 Mt CO ₂当量）。作为一项关键成果，与增加原木采伐量相比，增加副产品在纺织品和木塑复合材料中的替代牛皮纸浆和生物燃料的使用意味着更高的总体替代信用。