Understanding and improving how humans adapt to climate change are priorities in our research community, and coastal settlements are good places to study adaptation. Severe storm events and sea‐level rise are threatening coastal communities with increasing levels of flood damage. Because ownership of coastal assets is distributed among many private and public actors, both individual property owners and public officials must take adaptive actions. This paper introduces an integrated agent‐based and hedonic pricing modeling system to simulate coastal real estate market performance under non‐equilibrium conditions that reflect the effects of storm events. The modeling system, which is used for policy analysis, is calibrated to conditions in two towns in Monmouth County, New Jersey, USA, which were badly damaged by Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The key findings are that (a) coastal real estate markets capitalize flood risk into property values but this discount diminishes rapidly as time passes between storm events, and (b) there is a distinct equity versus efficiency tradeoff in designing public policies to reduce the cost to society of coastal flooding. Stringent regulation of building practices reduces flood damage but drives away poorer home buyers and owners, whereas informational and incentive‐based policies are fairer but less effective. Hands‐off, market‐based retreat from risky areas is socially costly but allows less wealthy people to remain at the shore, albeit in vulnerable situations. Managed retreat should emphasize improved recreational access to coastal amenities while discouraging people from living there.

中文翻译：

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房地产市场应对沿海洪灾的综合模型

理解和改善人类如何适应气候变化是我们研究界的优先事项，沿海居民区是研究适应性的好地方。严重的风暴事件和海平面上升正威胁着洪水泛滥的沿海社区。由于沿海资产的所有权分布在许多私人和公共行为者之间，因此个人财产所有人和公共官员都必须采取适应性行动。本文介绍了一种基于主体和享乐主义的集成定价建模系统，可以在反映风暴事件影响的非平衡条件下模拟沿海房地产市场的表现。用于政策分析的建模系统已根据美国新泽西州蒙茅斯县两个城镇的条件进行了校准，这些城镇在2012年遭到桑迪飓风的严重破坏。关键发现是：（a）沿海房地产市场将洪水风险转化为财产价值，但是随着风暴事件之间的时间流逝，折价迅速减少，并且（b）在设计公共政策以降低成本方面存在明显的公平与效率之间的权衡对沿海洪水的社会。严格的建筑规范管理减少了洪水的破坏，但却驱走了贫穷的购房者和业主，而基于信息和激励的政策则较为公平，但效果较差。从危险地区撤出以市场为基础的撤退行动在社会上代价高昂，但即使处于脆弱境地，也允许较少的有钱人留在岸上。有管理的务虚会应强调改善对沿海设施的娱乐访问，同时劝阻人们不要住在那里。